Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 28 Predictions

4 hours ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

The business end of the season is here, and margins are finer than ever.

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Final One Standing isn’t about chasing the upside — it’s about survival. Form and data collide as we identify the safest path through the chaos and give you the edge when it matters most.

Fulham

The appointment of Igor Tudor was supposed to spark a reaction — the traditional ‘new manager bounce’ — but the reality of a humbling north London derby defeat to rivals Arsenal quickly tempered any optimism. Beyond the tactical shortcomings, there were visible signs of disconnect: players appearing to disregard instruction, body language betraying confidence, and an atmosphere that feels increasingly fractured.

From an injury and availability perspective, Spurs have struggled for continuity throughout the campaign, and while the treatment room is showing signs of emptying, the psychological scars of a turbulent season are bearing heavy on the shoulders of a side that sits just four points above the drop zone. Consistency of selection has proved elusive, and with confidence fragile, even minor absences have felt amplified.

Fulham, by contrast, arrive in a far more stable position. Safe in mid-table and quietly efficient, they’ve made Craven Cottage an awkward assignment for most visitors. Marco Silva has largely enjoyed the luxury of a settled squad in recent weeks, allowing cohesion to build… Continuity matters at this stage of the season — and the Cottagers have it.

Recent head-to-head data reinforces the power shift. Fulham have won their last two home fixtures against Spurs by an aggregate score of 5–0, and three wins in the last four meetings overall suggests this is no longer a fixture Tottenham can approach with the expectation of dominance.

The broader performance data also paints a concerning picture for Spurs. They are the only Premier League side without a win in 2026 (D4, L5), propping up the calendar-year table. Since the turn of the year, no top-flight side has shipped more goals, while the hosts rank joint-sixth for goals scored over the same period.

Underlying metrics across the full season show marginal differences — both sides broadly similar in goals for and against — but recent trajectory is key. The Cottagers’ attacking efficiency has sharpened, whereas Spurs’ defensive decline has accelerated.

One individual to monitor closely is Harry Wilson. His recent output blends creativity with industry — 10 key passes and three big chances created since Gameweek 19, alongside strong defensive metrics including a 100% tackle success rate. He offers precisely the balance Tottenham have lacked: work rate without sacrificing quality in the final third. Four goal involvements underline his growing influence.

The Opta algorithm gives Fulham a 45.8% probability of winning — a figure that feels aligned with both data trends and momentum.

Manchester United

Historically, this fixture has posed problems for United. Palace have won four of their last six away matches at Old Trafford — an impressive return — and another success would see them become just the second London club to secure three consecutive away league wins here. However, context has shifted.

Under Michael Carrick, United are enjoying their most cohesive spell in recent seasons. A nine-game unbeaten run has included statement victories over Arsenal and Manchester City, suggesting tactical clarity and renewed belief.

Across the last six Premier League matches, the Red Devils’ attacking output has exceeded underlying xG — an indicator of clinical finishing — while Palace continue to underperform, sitting approximately 2.3 goals below their expected returns over a comparable period.

Oliver Glasner is hoping the acquisition of Jorgen Strand Larsen will help remedy the Eagles’ lacklustre finishing. However, the more significant divergence lies defensively: United have conceded four fewer goals than Palace, who have struggled since the departure of their captain, Marc Guehi.

Mood within each camp contrasts sharply. Palace supporters have grown restless amid inconsistency and perceived disconnect from Oliver Glasner, particularly following comments interpreted as dismissive. United, meanwhile, are buoyed by the resurgence under a club legend.

Individually, the creative axis of Bruno Fernandes remains central. Twenty-two key passes and seven big chances created in his last six appearances highlight sustained influence. Alongside him, Bryan Mbeumo has contributed five goal involvements, and both could benefit on Sunday.

United are firm favourites (55.9%) — a reflection of not just of form, but of defensive reliability that Palace currently lack.

Newcastle United

The Magpies’ season has been defined by volatility. One win in nine across January into early February raised concerns, but a sequence of four victories in five — spanning league, FA Cup and Champions League commitments — has restored momentum.

Everton arrive in less convincing form (one win in five), though margins have been narrow. Since returning to the dugout, David Moyes has tightened the Toffees’ away form. They rank second for points collected on the road, and they boast one of the best defensive records in that timeframe. Organisation and compactness have been hallmarks.

In contrast, the Newcastle defensive data should carry a warning sign. Only Burnley have conceded more first-half goals in 2026 — slow starts have undermined otherwise strong underlying metrics – and performances should be yielding better results.

The issue is conversion at both ends: underperforming offensively while allowing high-value chances to be clinically finished by opponents. Regression toward the mean would favour improvement.

Confidence underpinned by data implies a positive correction is overdue.

Brentford

The Bees’ home-away split has been notable this season, yet overall performance levels remain comfortably superior to the Clarets. Burnley sit second bottom, and the statistical gulf is pronounced.

Brentford have won three of their last four meetings with the hosts, and boast a formidable record against promoted sides — 10 wins from 12 Premier League fixtures. Stylistically, their structured press and transitional threat often overwhelm less established top-flight defences.

From a data standpoint, Brentford have accrued almost twice as much xG as Burnley in 2025-26, while, defensively, the disparity is even greater. A 26-goal difference between the sides, alongside a 21-point gap in the table, reinforces the separation.

Up front, Igor Thiago has endured a relatively lean spell (one goal in five), yet underlying shot quality remains strong. For the first time this season, he has marginally underperformed expectations… so the Brazilian is due a big game.

This should be a relatively easy afternoon for Brentford, although Scott Parker’s men know that time is running out if they harbour any real hope of retaining their place in the top-flight.