Indian Wells Open 2026 Predictions: Big Guns Head To California

March 2 sees the beginning of the Sunshine Swing. Indian Wells takes centre stage first of all for what is affectionately known as the ‘Fifth Grand Slam’.

Jack Draper and Mirra Andreeva are aiming to defend their singles titles, but it’s a tall order with all of the world’s best players taking part.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner sit atop the tennis betting markets for the men’s draw, while Iga Świątek, Aryan Sabalenka, and Elena Rybakina lead the way in the women’s draw.

Men’s Singles

The champion in Melbourne and Doha, Alcaraz enters as the favourite to win at Indian Wells. The Spaniard won this event in 2023 and 2024.

It’s been a less successful venue for Sinner. Semi-final appearances in 2023 and 2024 are his best showings so far. He was beaten in a classic semi-final by Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open and fell to Jakub Mensik in the quarter-final in Doha.

Following a win in Brisbane, Daniil Medvedev disappointed in Melbourne, Rotterdam, and Doha. He’s reached the final in Dubai, though, and reached the final in 2023 and 2024 (before losing both to Alcaraz).

It would be unfair not to have a proper look at Draper. He knocked Alcaraz out in the semis 12 months ago and made light work of his duel with Holger Rune in the final. The Brit won in the first round in Dubai before falling to Arthur Rinderknech, which doesn’t exactly suggest he’s ready to rival Alcaraz and Sinner in California.

Aside from a disappointing showing at the Australian Open, Andrey Rublev has had a solid start to the year. He lost in straight sets to Alcaraz in Doha but forced a tie break in the first. At the time of writing, he’s competing in the semi-final in Dubai.

Alcaraz is undeniably the man to beat. He’s 12-0 this year. Cam Norrie and Sinner are the only players to beat him on the ATP Tour since April 2025.

Women’s Singles

Defending champion Andreeva has been out of form since winning in Adelaide, with Jessica Pegula and Elina Svitolina meeting in the final in Dubai. The betting markets still favour Sabalenka, Świątek, and Rybakina.

It took a fight back from a set down for Andreeva to beat Sabalenka in the final 12 months ago. It was an epic duel between Sabalenka and Rybakina in Melbourne earlier this year, following on from a routine run of victories in Brisbane for the world number one.

Champion at this event back in 2023, Rybakina is back on court practicing after retiring in Dubai. She’s only won three matches since claiming the Australian Open but has proven multiple times in the last few months that she can beat Sabalenka.

If you want to fade Sabalenka, Rybakina is the obvious betting option considering her form over the last few months. We’d also consider Pegula, who won in Dubai after reaching the last four in Melbourne, and had wins over Coco Gauff and Jasmine Paolini in the WTA Finals.

Whether Pegula can overcome the world’s best remains to be seen, though, as she’s lost five out of six to Sabalenka and hasn’t beaten Rybakina since 2023.

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*