MMA
Moicano vs Duncan UFC Predictions: The Scotsman Set To Steal the Show Against Moicano
Renato Moicano is set to face Chris Duncan at the Meta APEX in the early hours of Sunday morning, with betting tips and predictions at William Hill News.
After dispatching Terrance McKinney in December within the first round by submission, Duncan enters this fixture with only one thought in his mind. He will be looking to extend his excellent form going into 2026 and is priced as the resounding favourite at 1/2 while Moicano is the outsider at 8/5.
Chris Duncan (1/2)
Duncan enters the fight following four consecutive victories and remains unbeaten since September 2024. His impressive 15-2 record is composed of seven wins by KO and TKO, four by submission and four by decision. Notably, he also has six first-round finishes making William Hill’s of odds 9/2 enticing due to two of these early stoppages being in his last four fights.
Duncan’s imposing history of KO’s and TKO’s making up 43% of his wins is an interesting pick at 13/10 made even more attractive by Moicano’s underwhelming record coming into the matchup. Duncan averages 3.27 takedowns with 0.65 compared to his opponent’s 0.5 successful submissions per 15 minutes which makes the odds at 8/1 another worthwhile option.
Duncan also has four fights which have been decided by decision which makes up 27% of his wins, which is priced at 7/2. Although it would be an unlikely outcome, a draw is priced at 66/1.
Renato Moicano (8/5)
Moicano enters the fight in completely opposite form, off the back of two consecutive losses and has been without a fight since last June. Moicano has a lower win rate with a record of 20-7 as well as one draw.
He only has two KO’s and TKO’s throughout his entire professional career but boasts 10 submissions, winning 50% of his fights in this fashion. As a result, his odds to win by either of these methods are particularly appealing at 11/5, while he has also won by decision eight times (he’s 13/2 to repeat this feat here).
Moicano enjoys an elongated fight when grappling becomes more effective with his average fight length at 9.28 compared to Duncans 7.38. The odds for the fight to go the distance are 12/5. However, the fight is fancied to have an early winner with the odds of a quick victory 3/10.
Prediction: Duncan to win by KO, TKO,DQ or submission (EVS)
These methods make up nearly 75% of Duncans wins and Moicano is coming into the fight in weak from and has not won a fight in a year and a half. Although Moicano is the more experienced fighter over five round bouts, Duncan’s form cannot be overlooked and should win, provided the fight does not get drawn out, where grappling becomes more of a predominant factor.
