Basketball
NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions 2026: Who Will Secure Playoff Berth?
The 2026 NBA play-in tournament tips off on Tuesday and William Hill News have you covered as the race to reach the playoffs kicks up a notch.
The Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns are meeting to decide who gets to face Victor Wembanyama in the first round, while the Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets are fighting to extend their respective seasons.
On Wednesday, the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers are taking on the Orlando Magic with the seven seed at stake before the Golden State Warriors head to Los Angeles to face the Clippers.
NBA Play-In Schedule 2026:
- April 15, 00:30: Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
- April 15, 03:00: Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns
- April 16, 00:30: Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers
- April 16, 03:00: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
- April 18, 00:30: TBD at TBD for eight seed
- April 18, 03:00: TBD at TBD for eight seed
Odds to Make NBA Playoffs:
- Phoenix Suns: 1/7
- Orlando Magic: 2/9
- Portland Trail Blazers: 3/10
- Philadelphia 76ers: 1/3
- Charlotte Hornets: 11/8
- Los Angeles Clippers: 2/1
- Golden State Warriors: 10/3
- Miami Heat: 9/2
What History Tells Us
Across the previous 10 play-in tournaments, the 10th seed has only progressed from the play-in tournament once. The 10th seed has to win consecutive road games, which is a stern task against similarly matched opponents.
Ninth seeds have reached the second phase of the competition six times in 10 attempts and have gone 3-3 in the winner-takes-all game.
Seventh seeds have always reached the first round of the playoffs and have an 80% win rate in the seven-eight contest. Eight seeds have been bumped from the postseason on four occasions.
Miami and Golden State would have to win back-to-back road games to progress, which is why their odds to make the playoffs are the longest on the board. Phoenix only has to win one out of two home games.
First Phase Treble (5/2)
- Hornets to win
- Suns to win
- Clippers to win
Backing the Clippers, Hornets, and Suns to win at home across Tuesday and Wednesday comes to a good-value 5/2 treble.
The Sixers and Magic’s matchup in Philadelphia is the most difficult game to call, so it’s worth steering clear of for the purposes of accumulators. As far as single wagers go, Orlando is a good bet to win in Philadelphia at evens considering that Embiid is sidelined after surgery.
Home court advantage is significant for the Suns, who went 25-16 on the home floor in the regular season. Charlotte has been the best team in the NBA by net rating in 2026.
The Clips are facing a Warriors team that doesn’t seem overly motivated for the play-in, with Steve Kerr saying he will not be playing his veterans 40+ minutes. Golden State’s hopes of a deep run disappeared when Jimmy Butler got injured.
Back Charlotte
The 2022 play-in was the last time a ninth seed reached the first round. The run of the seven-eight teams coming out on top is under serious threat with the impressive young Hornets looming.
A dire start to the year prevented Charlotte from climbing into the top eight. The Hornets, though, finished the regular season 37-20. Since Christmas, they’ve gone 3-0 against the Magic, and they beat the Sixers without Embiid in January.
An 11/8 price to make the playoffs might seem short with how rarely nine seeds have made the playoffs, but these Hornets aren’t a normal ninth seed. They clocked a string of marquee wins in the second half of the campaign and will be fearless on the road against the Magic or 76ers, providing they see off the Heat on Tuesday.
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
