Politics
Keir Starmer Resignation Odds: Prime Minister Backed To Leave Position In 2026
William Hill News make Keir Starmer 2/7 to leave his position as Labour leader at some point during 2026, but see a pre‑election exit as less likely despite heightened Westminster speculation.
The leading bookmaker are 5/1 that Starmer resigns before next month’s local elections, while it is 7/4 that he steps down during the week of the locals – before midnight on the Sunday (10th May).
Beyond those short-term windows, 2026 remains the most likely year to be Starmer’s last as leader, ahead of 2027 at 7/2 and 2028 at 10/1, with 2029 or later also priced at 10/1 in politics betting markets available at William Hill.
Keir Starmer Labour Leadership Exit Year Odds:
- 2026 – 2/7
- 2027 – 7/2
- 2028 – 10/1
- 2029 or later – 10/1
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Labour have only just got the job back after a long time in opposition, so it’s hard to see them deliberately making themselves less secure by ousting Keir Starmer and risking an election.
“That said, speculation around the Prime Minister inadvertently misleading parliament is impacting his odds to leave this year – he’s now 2/7 from 4/11 to step down as Labour leader in 2026.
“The local elections in May could prove pivotal to the length of Starmer’s reign, and we go 7/4 that he steps down during that week, with an alternative being he leaves the role before the elections (5/1).
“In the longer term, we have a 2027-exit for Starmer priced at 7/2, behind a 2026-departure at 2/7. The Prime Minister is 10/1 to last as leader of his party until at least 2028, 2029 or later.”
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
