Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 36 Predictions

2 hours ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

With the season entering its decisive final weeks, motivation, fatigue, and momentum are becoming increasingly important factors in predicting outcomes.

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Round 36 of Final One Standing presents several one-sided statistical matchups alongside crucial battles in the race for a European qualification place.

Liverpool vs Chelsea

Two clubs that began the season with lofty ambitions now find themselves fighting to salvage something from campaigns that have unravelled in very different ways. Liverpool remain firmly in the hunt for Champions League qualification, while Chelsea are desperately trying to avoid a complete collapse…

The Blues’ situation has deteriorated rapidly. Six consecutive Premier League defeats have intensified scrutiny of the ownership model, recruitment structure, and the club’s long-term direction.

Confidence appears drained on and off the pitch, and Stamford Bridge has become increasingly fractured as supporters’ frustrations continue to grow. Liverpool, on the other hand, may have endured a disappointing campaign by their standards, but the noise surrounding Arne Slot remains considerably more stable.

The underlying data makes this fixture particularly fascinating. Chelsea’s numbers are actually stronger than many would expect. Since Gameweek 29, the side has produced 11.68 xG, fourth-highest in the league. However, they have converted just five goals from those opportunities.

Liverpool, by comparison, have generated a more modest 9.77 xG across the same period but have scored 12 times. That disparity tells the story of two teams moving in opposite psychological directions… The Reds are maximising moments, while the Blues are wasting theirs.

More worryingly, Chelsea have conceded five goals more than their defensive metrics indicate, and this consistent underperformance often points towards structural fragility, poor organisation and a loss of confidence. The side has failed to keep a clean sheet in 13 consecutive league matches…

That should suit Cody Gakpo perfectly. Since the beginning of March, no Premier League player has recorded more shots, while his four goal involvements during that period underline how central he has become to Liverpool’s attack.

And against a defence conceding both high-quality chances and significant volume, this feels like the type of fixture where those underlying numbers could finally translate into a decisive return.

Three wins from four suggests Liverpool are finding some momentum during the run-in, who also have history on their side. Chelsea have won just once in their last 10 attempts at Anfield, underlining how difficult the visitors find a trip to Merseyside.

The models make Liverpool a 55.4% shot, and given the Blues’ current plight, it is difficult to argue otherwise.

Brighton vs Wolves

This should be one of the more straightforward outcomes to predict, given the enormous motivational disparity between the two sides.

Brighton remain firmly focused on securing European qualification, while Wolves appear to be simply drifting towards the end of a disappointing campaign.

The Seagulls are unbeaten in their last eight league meetings against Wolves, a run stretching back to 2021, and the current trajectories of the two clubs suggest that sequence is unlikely to end this weekend.

Away from Molineux, Wolves’ away form has been catastrophic – they remain winless, averaging just 0.41 goals per game. And even though performances have improved since Rob Edwards took charge, particularly at home, they continue to struggle on the road.

Meanwhile, Brighton continue to flourish under Fabian Hurzeler, with the team in the Top 5 of the ten-game form table. Attacking attention will focus on Danny Welbeck, given his goal-scoring form this season, 13, but since his arrival (return) in January, Pascal Groß has been the unsung hero behind the Seagulls’ offensive play.

Despite playing significantly fewer minutes – he ranks second in the squad for key passes, second for Expected Assists and fourth for final-third passes.

Brighton are heavy favourites (69.2%) – one of the highest projected win percentages of the weekend – and given Wolves’ attacking limitations, there is also strong potential for a win-to-nil.

Sunderland vs Manchester United

The Black Cats’ season has already exceeded all expectations. Survival has been comfortably secured, European qualification is beyond reach, and there is a sense that the players have subconsciously relaxed after achieving their primary objectives.

They have lost two and drawn one of their last three league matches, conceding 10 goals. Defensive concentration has slipped, and Dan Ballard, arguably Sunderland’s standout centre-back, will miss the remaining fixtures through suspension.

Manchester United arrive in exceptional attacking form. Since Michael Carrick took charge in January, United have accumulated more points than any other Premier League team and scored the most goals. The tactical shift under Carrick has brought greater fluidity in possession and significantly more attacking aggression.

Last weekend’s win over Liverpool perfectly encapsulated their current level. United generated 2.1 xG and repeatedly exposed the Reds’ defensive frailties during transition. The speed and confidence with which they are now moving the ball through midfield makes them one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the league, and Bruno Fernandes sits at the heart of everything.

The Portuguese playmaker leads the league for key passes (120), with Dominik Szoboszlai, 65, in second place — while also topping the charts for Big Chances Created and through balls. Fernandes has not blanked for a goal involvement since Gameweek 28 and is now chasing the Premier League assist record.

There should be goals at The Stadium of Light, which has proven a difficult venue for many opponents this season. Still, Sunderland’s recent regression, combined with United’s resurgence, makes the visitors the deserved favourites.

Burnley vs Aston Villa

The Clarets’ relegation has fundamentally changed the dynamic around this team, and, statistically, they are among the weakest top-flight sides.

Performances were already poor for large stretches of the season, but since their fate was effectively sealed, there has been a visible collapse both physically and mentally. Intensity levels have dropped, their defensive structure has deteriorated, and the underlying metrics strongly suggest a side simply playing out the remainder of the campaign.

For Villa, this fixture arrives at an important moment. Regardless of the result on Thursday night in the Europa League, Unai Emery’s priority will immediately switch back towards securing Champions League football.

Recent form is a little concerning – only seven points from their last eight Premier League outings – while they looked physically exhausted during last weekend’s defeat to Tottenham. The combination of a deep European run and sustained league pressure has clearly taken a toll on the Villa squad.

However, context matters. This Burnley side is currently operating at a level far below that of most Premier League sides, and Villa should view this as an opportunity to stabilise momentum heading into the final weeks.

Villa have lost just twice against Burnley in recent meetings and arrive at Turf Moor having won each of the last three encounters. Emery could rotate his squad given the physical demands placed on it in recent weeks, but the Spaniard will also understand the importance of restoring confidence after a difficult spell.

Villa still have tangible objectives to fight for, and another poor performance against relegated opposition would significantly damage momentum at a critical stage.

Despite their problems, Aston Villa, quite rightly, are highly fancied (59.1%), and this feels like the type of fixture where their superior quality should ultimately prove decisive.