William Hill Premiership
Hearts set for ‘bigger shock than Leicester’ title win, new study reveals
Hearts have the chance to complete one of the most unlikely title wins in football history this season – and could surpass Leicester City’s famous 2016 triumph in terms of shock value, according to new research by William Hill.
- Scottish side ranked second in 21st century ‘underdog title wins’ power rankings
- Montpellier’s 2012 triumph tops rankings, with Leicester third
- Study compares historic winners across five measurable underdog criteria
- Hearts’ potential 2025/26 title would surpass Leicester’s 5000/1 miracle
In a study analysing all of Europe’s league winners this century across the Premier League, Ligue 1, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga and William Hill Premiership, Hearts’ potential 2025/26 Scottish title would rank as the second biggest underdog success of the modern era, ahead of Leicester’s 5000/1 miracle season.
The research evaluated historic title winners across five measurable criteria to determine the scale of each shock, with each team awarded 1-20 points depending on their respective finish in each category:
- Pre-season outright odds – longer odds indicate lower expectations
- Years since last league title – longer droughts increase underdog status
- Previous season finish – lower finishes suggest a bigger leap
- Summer transfer spend – smaller investment signals fewer advantages
- Avg. stadium capacity – smaller clubs typically have fewer resources
French side Montpellier’s 2011/12 Ligue 1 title ranks as the biggest shock overall, scoring 86/100 in the index after defying 80/1 odds with minimal spending and a modest infrastructure.
Hearts’ projected title-winning campaign places second with 82/100, driven by a 66-year wait for a league crown, tiny summer spend, and a mid-table finish the previous season. Their 22/1 pre-season odds further underline the scale of the achievement.
Leicester’s historic 2015/16 Premier League win ranks third (81/100). While their 5000/1 odds remain unmatched, stronger underlying metrics – including greater financial backing and a bigger stadium – mean they fall just short of Hearts in the overall index.
Elsewhere, Wolfsburg (2008/09) and Lille (2010/11) complete the top five, while more recent winners such as Bayer Leverkusen (2023/24) and Monaco (2016/17) rank lower due to stronger resources and higher expectations heading into their respective seasons.
William Hill Underdog Title Win Power Ranking Index
| Blank | Team/Season | Years Since League Win | Previous Season Finish | Summer Spend | Odds | Ave. Capacity | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montpellier (2011-12) | 12 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 86 |
| 2. | Hearts (2025-26) | 18 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 19 | 82 |
| 3 | Leicester (2015-16) | 20 | 20 | 8 | 20 | 13 | 81 |
| 4 | Wolfsburg (2008-09) | 17 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 74 |
| 5 | Lille (2010-11) | 15 | 10 | 20 | 11 | 17 | 73 |
| 6 | Leverkusen (2023-24) | 19 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 65 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen (2003-04) | 3 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 62 |
| 8 | Nantes (2000-01) | 1 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 60 |
| 9 | Stuttgart (2006-07) | 4 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 6 | 57 |
| 10 | Monaco (2016-17) | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 48 |
| 11 | Atletico (2013-14) | 7 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 5 | 47 |
| 12 | Lyon (2001-02) | 16 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 46 |
| 13 | Bordeaux (2008-09) | 2 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 45 |
| 14 | Valencia (2001-02) | 10 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 40 |
| 15 | Napoli (2022-23) | 11 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 39 |
| 16 | Liverpool (2019-20) | 9 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 33 |
| 17 | Man City (2011-12) | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 31 |
| 18 | Chelsea (2004-05) | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 30 |
| 19 | Roma (2000-01) | 8 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 29 |
| 20 | Marseille (2009-10) | 6 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 22 |
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Leicester’s 2016 title win has long been considered the benchmark for an underdog story, but our analysis suggests Hearts could go one step further.
“When you look beyond the headline odds and factor in factors such squad investment, infrastructure and recent performances, their achievement would arguably be even more unexpected than the Foxes, though Montpellier’s 2012 Ligue 1 triumph tops our power rankings.
“A 66-year wait for a league title combined with relatively modest spending makes this a remarkable potential story, especially when you factor in the daunting task of toppling Old Firm giants Celtic and Rangers. It’s the kind of season that captures attention well beyond Scotland and would go down as one of the most surprising title wins we’ve ever seen.
“Celtic are still our 4/7 favourites going into their final-day showdown against Hearts (5/4) on Saturday, but with Derek McInnes’ men only needing a draw, the miracle is by no means out of the question.”
