Jane Mangan
Jane Mangan’s William Hill blog: Irish Guineas Weekend Preview
William Hill ambassador Jane Mangan is back with her best bets across Irish Guineas Weekend.
Curragh, Saturday
Kicking off with the Orby Stakes (1:55pm), last year’s winner Trustyourinstinct is shaping into a very likeable horse, having won seven times in his career. Joseph O’Brien does have four runners in this renewal and, whilst it could be a bit concerning that Dylan Browne McMonagle jumps ship, Declan McDonogh gets on very well with this horse. He had an eye-opener on unsuitably heavy ground in the Alleged Stakes last month, and I think this course-and-distance winner can follow up his win in last year’s race.
Paddy Twomey combining with the Cheeky Pups Syndicate in the mile-and-a-quarter handicap (2:30pm) with Perfect Your Craft is a notable combination. She won three of her six starts to date when trained by Ralph Beckett. Now running off an Irish mark of 91, she’s well bred and I believe there is further improvement to come from this rating. She’s currently running over 10 furlongs, but I have no doubt that she will stay further in time. It is her first start since November, but that isn’t a worry with this yard, and I’m siding with her.
The Greenlands Stakes (3:05pm) often goes for export, with each of the last four renewals going overseas, but this year I think Ireland has the answer. Improving four-year-old Comanche Brave has been busy over the winter, racing from Abu Dhabi to Saudi Arabia and out to Sha Tin last time, where he came up six lengths short of Ka Ying Rising. That’s no mean feat behind the world’s best sprinter, and this is far calmer waters. I think the six-furlong trip, and the fact that Ryan Moore is back aboard, will only enhance his chances. He’s the one for me.
The feature race on Day One is the Irish 2000 Guineas (3:40pm), a race that Aidan O’Brien has won 12 times, and it is hard to look past his Gstaad in this year’s renewal. If he were to win, he would join the likes of Field Of Gold, Rosallion and Kingman as horses who finished just one place behind the winner at Newmarket before following up to win here. An angle into the race may be a forecast, where I like the chances of the Newmarket third, Distant Storm, to follow Gstaad home. I think the cheekpieces and a more conventional track will help his chances. Charlie Appleby’s horses are returning to form and, with Billy Loughnane riding, he’s the horse I expect to come out next best.
The Gallinule Stakes (4:15pm) is next, where Aidan O’Brien has a very strong hand with three representatives. I actually like his second string on jockey bookings, Drop Dead Gorgeous. I think the step up to 10 furlongs is going to enhance her chances. She was a little unlucky when beaten in a Group Three over a mile last time by Kensington Lane, where the penny just dropped too late. I think, with that experience and the extra two furlongs, she may well take down the colts in the Gallinule.
My final selection on Day One comes in the seven-furlong handicap (4:50pm). I fancy Quiet Mutiny for Gavin Cromwell, who runs under top weight on her handicap debut. She beat none other than Precise on her debut over six furlongs. Obviously, Precise went on to win a pair of Group One contests thereafter. Quiet Mutiny was reintroduced over five-and-a-half furlongs at Cork in a Listed race three weeks ago, and she’ll come on for that experience. Stepping up to seven furlongs will stand her in good stead for this assignment. She could be better than a mark of 90, and she’s the one for me.
Curragh, Sunday
The Marble Hill Stakes (2:15pm) over six furlongs for two-year-olds can often throw up a real star. We’ve seen the likes of Caravaggio, Fairyland, Power and Siskin win this en route to Royal Ascot and Classic glory. This time around, I like Great Barrier Reef. He looked really impressive when winning over course and distance on debut. He’s an obvious horse with an obvious claim, but he looks like a horse that could win the Coventry. He looks the likeliest to take in the Marble Hill on the way there.
In the fillies’ handicap (2:45pm) over a mile, I think that Oisin Murphy has all the answers with Stars Will Shine. It is her handicap debut, running off a mark of 87. She won at Down Royal over seven furlongs last year but was stepped up to Group Three company at the Curragh in October. I’d say the ground was too soft and the class too hot. She comes back here with plenty of potential off her mark, and Noel Meade will have her ready. He wouldn’t book the British champion otherwise; it’s quite a formidable combination, and I’m taking Stars Will Shine to shine at the Curragh.
The fancy in the Lanwades Stud Stakes (3:20pm) is City Of Memphis for Paddy Twomey. She’s three from four so far, with her only defeat coming on this card when fifth in the Irish 1000 Guineas last year. Paddy Twomey has won this twice in the last four years with Just Beautiful and subsequent Group One winner Pearls Galore, and I wonder if this filly is a Group One winner in waiting. She’s stepping back up to a mile after winning a Group Three with plenty to spare over seven furlongs at Leopardstown two weeks ago. She’s a filly with plenty of potential to improve, given she has only had four career starts to date, and I’m taking her to put it up to the older fillies here.
The Tattersalls Gold Cup (3:55pm) is a race that Aidan O’Brien has won 11 times, and he comes back here with three-time Group One winner and Arc runner-up Minnie Hauk, whose form is a standout piece here. However, with her being a short price, I’m going to take a chance on Almaqam. He downed none other than Ombudsman in last year’s Brigadier Gerard. He was third in the Champion Stakes at Ascot on his final start and has a very high rating for a horse who’s only won a Group Three. Aged just five, I think he has better days ahead of him on more suitable ground, and I think he could be a big player to dethrone the queen in the Gold Cup.
Next is the feature, the Irish 1000 Guineas (4:30pm). This is a race that shapes around Newmarket’s victor, True Love. She didn’t have the services of Ryan Moore at Newmarket, but he couldn’t jump ship a second time and is back on board here. She was so impressive that day, and it’s hard to go against her here. Realistically, I want to go for a bigger price for my each-way shout, and that’s Magny Cours. She finished second to True Love in the Priory Belle Stakes at Leopardstown six weeks ago. That was her pipe-opener, and we haven’t seen her since. I believe that the plan was to go to France, but the ground came up too soft for her there. Instead, she goes across the road, being trained at the Curragh by Ireland’s youngest trainer, Daniel McLoughlin, and I think she can run a big race here.
My final selection of the weekend comes in the final race of the weekend, the mile-and-three-quarters handicap (5:40pm). Joseph O’Brien is trebly represented here in this huge field, but the choice of Dylan Browne McMonagle, Kingstonian, catches the eye. He’s got a good draw in stall two and was very eye-catching on his first start for the yard in the Plate at Chester. He was very well backed that day, so obviously there was plenty of expectation that he would run well. He was given a three-pound hike for that effort, but given he is the choice of McMonagle and the fact he’s dropping back in trip, I think he could be the one to round us off with a winner.
