Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Oaks Day Best Bets
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Epsom’s Oaks Day action and gives us his best bets
Friday, Epsom
Epsom’s Oaks Day card kicks off with the 3YO Dash (1.30pm) and I fancy Wedonttelllies who is now drifting to a very backable price. I was very impressed with him at Goodwood last time, where I thought it was a risky move dropping him down to 5f on a sharp track, but the application of cheekpieces and that drop in trip seemed to bring about a completely different type of performance. He looks a horse that is worth following, and I don’t think the six-pound rise is unduly harsh given that he absolutely bolted up, with Billy Loughnane in the plate today.
I think Dandyman Dan is a horse that I would like to play in the Woodcote Stakes (2.05pm). He was quite unlucky in the National Stakes at Sandown when missing the break and rattling home, not beaten very far. He looks the type of horse to keep on improving in terms of his mindset and physically, and I don’t think this is an enormous step-up in grade for him today.
Seagulls Eleven is my pick in the Diomed Stakes (2.40pm). He is a horse that is beginning to really get his act together now after a very promising juvenile career, having been set some stiff tasks last year. There seems to be a common thread developing that the pick of his efforts appears to be coming on softish ground which he really enjoys – that has certainly been the case in two starts in France this year. I think the track at Epsom could really suit him having coped with the undulations at Goodwood very well, and I think the free-wheeling nature of his running style will be perfectly tailored to the demands of this race. He may get a little of company on the front-end, but he’s got a bit more tactical speed than Boiling Point, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oisin Murphy dominate this race.
There is some serious money on for the Nifty 50 (3.15pm) and I think Auld Toon Loon can reward the connections. He’s a seven-year-old but he’s not had that much racing on the Flat and he looks to be better than ever judging his performances this season. Tom Dascombe seems to have improved him quite a lot and he’s been running creditably, notwithstanding the fact that he has a better record with some cut in the ground. This is the first time in a while that he’s had his conditions, and he arrives here in excellent heart having finished a good third at Windsor. He’ll have to produce something close to a career best to win, but he’s in the right sort of nick to be able to do it.
Legacy Link will win the Oaks (4.00pm). The Gosdens have won this race with worse fillies than her, and although the top three in the market look pretty useful here, I don’t think this is a vintage edition. Legacy Link is bred to be very good, out of a sister to Frankel and by Dubawi. She moves as though plenty of cut in the ground will really suit her and she can move forward from that run in the Musidora. Colin Keane was very impressed with her at York and said it took a long time to pull her up so I don’t think the extra distance will be any kind of issue, in fact it might even bring about an improved performance.
I think Stem can win the final televised race at Epsom (4.40pm). It is fair to say he hasn’t perhaps fulfilled his considerable potential and certainly hasn’t quite lived up to the trainer’s expectation of him. It is still relatively early days, and he hasn’t had that much racing, and I think the ground is a big factor here. Many of his best efforts have come with cut, and I thought his comeback run at Newbury on ground quicker than ideal was perfectly respectable. He finished in the top half of the field in the Spring Cup there, he probably wasn’t best placed, and wasn’t given an unduly hard time when beaten. If he comes forward from that, and he’s perfectly entitled to, then I think he’s going to be a pretty big player somewhere off this mark, and that somewhere could just be today.
