British Open Round 3 Tips: What To Expect At Royal Birkdale On Saturday

Lucas Herbert leads The Open heading into the weekend after a record-matching round of 62 on Friday. A one-shot lead became a two-shot lead when Bryson DeChambeau was handed a two-stroke penalty for improving his lie, leaving Cameron Young, Jackson Suber, and Ryan Gerard tied for second going into the third round.

Sitting four shots off the lead, Scottie Scheffler is the golf betting favourite at 11/2 ahead of Young (13/2) and Herbert (9/1). Rory McIlroy is out at 25/1, despite shooting 67 on Friday. He’s seven shots off the lead.

Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, Aaron Rai, Jake Knapp, and Wyndham Clark were among the big names to miss the cut. Keegan Bradley, Min Woo Lee, and Russell Henley just sneaked under the +1 cut line.

Standout Day 2 Performers

Herbert and Sam Burns set the pace on Friday with rounds of 62. Eric Cole went six under, with Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, and Ludvig Åberg leading a group that shot 66.

Reed’s pinpoint approach play really stood out. He actually lost strokes on the greens, but he was consistently putting himself in such good positions that it’s not hard to imagine him surging further on Saturday.

Similar can be said of Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen. He’s got limited major experience, but he finished tied for 12th at the US Open in 2025 and has played some very good golf over the first two days at Royal Birkdale.

A word for Åberg, too. The Swede has a warranted reputation of crumbling when the lights are brightest, but he’s played to a high level on Thursday and Friday to sit tied with Scheffler and only four shots behind Herbert. Åberg struggled at the last two events – does he have what it takes to keep the pace with the leaders on Saturday?

Value Bets

Scheffler is 10/1 to lead at the end of round 3. There’s serious value at that price – the world number one was superb throughout Friday. He went bogey-free and would be right up with Herbert if a few more putts had fallen. It’s fair to expect some improvement on the greens from the defending champion.

His brother might have missed the cut, but Alex Fitzpatrick has to be worth backing at 7/2 as the top Englishman and 28/1 (five places each way) to win outright. He’s fourth in shots gained tee to green. No Englishman has performed better through the first two rounds.

In William Hill’s price boosts, Åberg is 11/4 for a top 10 finish. Burns is 3/1 for a top five finish. Both are appealing with the standard of golf they have displayed so far. Backing the top 10 market gives us some margin for error if Åberg makes errors on Sunday, while Burns is a player to watch after an exemplary Friday.