Cycling
2026 Tour de France – Stages 14-15 Predictions
The Tour de France heads deeper into the mountains with a crucial weekend double-header in the Vosges and Alps.
Stage 14 takes the peloton from Mulhouse to Le Markstein Fellering before Stage 15 delivers another brutal summit finish at Plateau de Solaison. William Hill News looks ahead to two stages that could have a major impact on the battle for yellow.
Tadej Pogačar has continued to set the pace at the 2026 Tour, building a commanding advantage after his Stage 10 victory at Le Lioran. The Slovenian has looked comfortable whenever the road rises, while Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel and the chasing contenders now face a race against time to limit the damage before the final week.
With two consecutive mountain stages offering almost 7,800 metres of climbing combined, this is where the overall contenders will have their biggest opportunities to attack. Stage 14 is short, explosive and packed with climbs, while Stage 15 is a longer Alpine test finishing on the steep Plateau de Solaison.
Our Prediction
Stage 14: Tadej Pogačar to win at Le Markstein Fellering, with Jonas Vingegaard the closest challenger. UAE Team Emirates-XRG should look to control the race before Pogačar attacks on the final climb.
Stage 15: Jonas Vingegaard to take the victory on Plateau de Solaison, with Pogačar settling for a podium finish as the Dane looks to respond in the high mountains.
Stage 14 – The Route
Mulhouse to Le Markstein Fellering is only 155.3 kilometres long, but it packs in around 3,800 metres of climbing, making it one of the most demanding short stages of the race.
The riders head into the Vosges mountains where the terrain becomes increasingly difficult, with repeated climbs designed to wear down the peloton. The Grand Ballon and Col du Haag are expected to play major roles before the final approach to Le Markstein, where the gradients should favour the strongest climbers rather than pure time trialists.
This is exactly the type of stage where teams can struggle to control the race. A strong breakaway could survive if the GC riders hesitate, but with the yellow jersey battle so finely poised, UAE Team Emirates-XRG will be unlikely to allow dangerous moves too much freedom.
Stage 14 Prediction
Pogačar has already shown that short, sharp mountain stages suit his racing style. The Slovenian thrives when climbs arrive one after another and when rivals are forced to make repeated efforts rather than settle into a steady rhythm.
Vingegaard remains the biggest threat and will likely try to turn the stage into a pure climbing battle. The Dane’s best chance may come by forcing UAE to chase early attacks before launching his own move closer to the finish.
Remco Evenepoel and Isaac Del Toro will also be dangerous, particularly if they can get clear before the final climb. However, with yellow still firmly on his shoulders, Pogačar should have enough support to strike late and extend his advantage.
Stage 15 – The Route
Stage 15 is another pure mountain day, starting in Champagnole and finishing on Plateau de Solaison. The stage covers 183.9 kilometres with almost 4,000 metres of elevation gain, making it one of the toughest Alpine tests before the final week.
Unlike Stage 14’s shorter explosive nature, Stage 15 should reward endurance. The riders will spend much of the day climbing and descending through demanding terrain before reaching the final ascent to Plateau de Solaison, where the general classification contenders are expected to go head-to-head.
A summit finish often creates the clearest gaps in the Tour, and with fatigue beginning to build, even small accelerations could create meaningful time differences.
Stage 15 Prediction
This could be Jonas Vingegaard’s best opportunity to strike back. The Dane has historically been at his strongest during long Alpine climbs, where he can maintain an intense pace and force rivals into the red zone.
Pogačar will still be the favourite to defend his yellow jersey, but UAE Team Emirates-XRG may be more cautious after controlling so many stages. If Vingegaard can isolate him on the final climb, he has the climbing ability to take back valuable seconds.
Remco Evenepoel will be hoping the race becomes more tactical, while riders such as Del Toro and Juan Ayuso could look to attack if the main favourites mark each other.
Our prediction is that Vingegaard finally lands a major blow in the mountains, winning the stage but with Pogačar limiting the damage.
Yellow Jersey Prediction
The mountain double-header should reveal whether anyone can seriously challenge Pogačar before the final week. Stage 14 looks tailor-made for the yellow jersey to add more time, but Stage 15 offers Vingegaard a chance to respond on a longer climb.
We expect Pogačar to remain in yellow after the weekend, although the gap could narrow slightly if Vingegaard produces one of his trademark Alpine performances. UAE Team Emirates-XRG will continue to control the race, but the pressure from behind is unlikely to disappear.
Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change
