Badenoch overtakes Farage as favourite to be next Prime Minister

William Hill now make Kemi Badenoch 3/1 favourite to be the next UK Prime Minister, moving her ahead of Nigel Farage as confidence in the Reform UK leader’s long‑term prospects wanes.

Badenoch, who was 5/1 only days ago, has shortened steadily to 3/1 at the head of William Hill’s next Prime Minister market.

Farage, who previously led the betting, has eased from 9/4 out to 7/2 as traders and punters reassess his chances of ultimately making it to Downing Street.

In leadership‑tenure markets, Badenoch is priced at 2/7 to still be Conservative leader at the time of the next General Election, with 5/2 that she has departed by then.

By contrast, Farage is 4/6 to remain in charge of Reform UK and 11/10 to have been replaced, a notable drift from as short as 1/20 about him staying in post a year ago.

Next Prime Minister Odds

• Kemi Badenoch – 3/1
• Nigel Farage – 7/2
• Al Carns – 10/1
• Shabana Mahmood – 12/1
• Angela Rayner – 14/1
• BAR – 16/1

Kemi Badenoch – Conservative Leader at next General Election

• Yes – 2/7
• No – 5/2

Nigel Farage – Reform UK Leader at next General Election

• Yes – 4/6
• No – 11/10

Nigel Farage Exit Date

• 2026 – 6/4
• 2027 – 3/1
• 2028 – 7/2
• 2029 or later – 11/4

William Hill spokesperson, Lee Phelps, said: “Kemi Badenoch has moved clear at the head of our next Prime Minister market, and at 3/1 she is now seen as a more likely candidate to move into Downing Street than Nigel Farage.

“The Conservatives and Reform are currently very closely matched in our most‑seats betting, but Badenoch’s 2/7 quote to still be Tory leader at the next General Election, compared to 4/6 for Farage at Reform, suggests punters have more faith in her long‑term grip on the job.

“The fact Farage is now 6/4 to be replaced as Reform leader in 2026 – having once been 1/20 to survive through to the election – shows just how much momentum has shifted over the past year.”

*Prices subject to change – odds correct at time of writing*