Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Bullet Spells Danger for his rivals

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck casts his expert eye over Shergar Cup Day from Ascot as well as four William Hill sponsored races from Newmarket.

Ascot, Saturday

TUCO SALAMANCA is fancied to go well in the Shergar Cup opener (1:35pm) at Ascot this afternoon. He was strong in the betting in the Stewards’ Cup last weekend, but ended up marooned in a small group. In the circumstances he ran fine, won’t mind a drop to a stiff five furlongs, and – like many a poly track horse – has translated his form to the Ascot straight before.

POLE STAR is a sporting alternative to the favourite in the staying race (2:10pm). He was a bit insipid last time (soft ground an excuse previously), but you don’t have to go back far to find progressive form that makes him look very well treated. The jockey is clearly a major plus, and he might spark back on a slightly more conventional track, and perhaps without masses of company on the front end.

STEM is the pick in the Shergar Cup Challenge (2:45pm). He’s always been a horse held in high esteem by connections, and may yet be open to more. His victory at Sandown last time was nowhere near as hard fought as the form book suggests, when he was well on top and with ears pricked. He’s a big horse with a long stride, and it’s perfectly possible he’ll improve again for a mile-and-a-half. Jamie Melham is well used to timing a challenge over this sort of distance.

RED SPELLS DANGER looks a very obvious pick in the Sprint (3:20pm). There are very few horses who are dropped by the handicapper for running a career best, but this is exactly what happened to this horse after an outstanding effort behind Stratusnine at York. That form looks even better now and this is nowhere near as competitive.

HOSEKI is very hard to escape in the Shergar Cup Classic (3:55pm). She loves the fast ground – like so many by her sire – and seems to have a terrific attitude, winning despite a pedestrian gallop not playing to her strengths last time. Her stable have a good record on this race, and she should go very well again off a perfectly fair rise.

BULLET POINT looks a very interesting runner on the way back in the finale (4:30pm). It’s possible his trip to Australia took the edge off him earlier in the year (running ok nonetheless), but he’s come down the weights as a result and – with a pair of pieces to sharpen up – it will be disappointing if he doesn’t shape better here under his top rider, perhaps en route to York.

Newmarket, Saturday

William Hill sponsor four races at Newmarket this afternoon. In the first of them, BETTY BOOP (2:30pm) might well be up to an opening mark of 81, particularly given how well some of those behind her at York have performed subsequently. Neil Callan has a particularly good strike rate for this stable (including a July Cup win).

ARCTIC DAWN is a pretty smart horse, possibly still improving, and is by no means out of his depth in the Hills-sponsored 0-100 handicap (3:40pm). That was another solid effort at Ascot last time in a much deeper race, and I can see his naturally onward bound style really suiting this track, especially with today’s excellent rider.

RUNSWICK has distinct possibilities in the mile handicap (4:14pm). He was progressing tidily, and ran as well as he could in a bit of a farce tempo-wise at Goodwood, when he as good as finished on the bridle (similar comments apply to Rimbaud). Billy Loughnane takes over today, and will have him well positioned.

FRAM CASTLE is the pick in the last of the four William Hill races (5:23pm). He’s never been the most bankable, but he does know how to win in his grade, and he could easily do quite a bit better in the hands of his current trainer, for whom he is only having his third career start. His useful rider already knows him well.