Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: River to deliver at York
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck casts his expert eye over Day One of York’s Ebor Festival.
DUBAI BLING looks a very big price in the opener at York (1.50) on Juddmonte International day. A defeat of Behike at Ascot reads exceptionally well, while the Stewards’ Cup run was way better than the finishing position as he had a shocking start and was never nearer than at the finish. That confirmed him in good heart, he is able to race off there pounds lower, and gets Oisin Murphy. While low numbers have been favoured in sprints most of the season at York, the stick readings since rainfall started suggests the ground is a little tighter on the stands side, so 17 may not be a disadvantage.
ALFRED WALLACE might be the answer to a tricky Acomb (2.25). His form has a patchy look, but he’s capable of running a very big race if he gets the right set-up. With favourite Haffner and stable mate Confucius trapped wide, it is likely they’ll have to bull forward, while Trean is likely to be on the sharp end as well. This could set it up perfectly for the selection if he’s ridden with the same restraint as was the case at Ascot last time.
PIERRE BONNARD gets the vote in a race of fine margins for the Voltigeur (3.00). There is very little between the big three on form, so the five pounds he receives from the other two could well be a factor. Beyond that, however, he was clearly slow to start the season, and may only just be getting to a point where he’s ready to show himself off. A nice level track and a bit of cut in the ground make him a compelling proposition.
CONSTITUTION RIVER is confidently fancied to get the better of Ombudsman in the Juddmonte International (3.35). With due respect to Devil’s Advocate, Ballydoyle have a far likelier chance of shaping the running of this race courtesy of Dante runner-up Action, and underrated Eclipse third Hawk Mountain, who could easily place himself. That notwithstanding, the selection simply glided through the Eclipse, and is a top notch racehorse on the clock. The feeling persists that a bit of cut could see him better still, and he can travel away strongly while his stablemates draw the sting out of Ombudsman.
KIRCHNER looks set to run a big race in the two-mile handicap (4.10). It was only a small field he beat at Ascot last time, bit he was super impressive, and there’s every chance James Owen hasn’t got to the bottom of the Northumberland Plate runner-up. The handicapper could have gone harder, and he has some form on easy ground should further rain fall.
OLD IS GOLD is risky, but interesting in the sprint handicap (4.45). He was heavily fancied by connections at Goodwood, but once again blew his chance at the start. I’m banking on the visor ironing out that issue. If things go to plan he looks exceptionally well treated on last year’s form, and he’ll be helped by the sting coming out of the surface, judged on his one very good run with cut in the ground.
GOD GIVEN TALENT looks a possibility each way in the concluding nursery on his first start for William Haggas (5.20). He blew out at Ascot but ran quite well in a stakes race at Newbury behind smart horses last time, and doesn’t look over handicapped on that. This yard could easily squeeze a bit more out of him, while it is significant that Tom Marquand had a sit on him on his final start for James Ferguson and may have been the impetus for the application of a tongue tie.
