BMW Championship Predictions 2026: Tight At Top Ahead Of Round Two

It’s a five-way tie for the BMW Championship lead heading into the second round. Rory McIlroy, who sits among that five-man group, is the clear golf betting favourite to win the event.

Scottie Scheffler’s virtuoso display at TPC Southwind was followed by a difficult opening round at Bellerive Country Club. The world’s best player shot two over par to reside eight shots off the lead and has faded to 25/1 to win.

Importance of Tee Shots

Distance off the tee was identified as a key factor before this tournament. The six leaders in strokes gained off the tee are all three under or better.

Scheffler was all over the shop, leading to a run of four bogeys in five holes at one point. He still posted +0.2 strokes gained off the tee, though, and will surely resume normal service with his approach and putter play at some point.

Rickie Fowler and J.T. Poston are two of the standout performers off the tee compared with their place on the scoreboard. At one over and even par, respectively, both had poor days on the greens. Fowler’s short game wasn’t great, and Poston was far from his best on approach.

Ice-Cold Putter

Si Woo Kim, Fowler, Justin Rose, Ben Griffin, and Cameron Young are among a group of players who were freezing cold on the greens on Thursday. Rose is the only one in that group who is under par, which can be attributed to trademark brilliance around the greens.

Kim would like to improve his approach play, but he was good enough off the tee to be competitive on Friday. Griffin got pretty much everything right on Thursday other than his putting.

How many of these golfers can regain their putting stroke and surge up the leaderboard in Round 2?

Value Bets

• Matt Fitzpatrick or Ludvig Åberg To Win (11/2 – Price Boost)
• Ludvig Åberg To Lead After Round 2 (18/1)
• Gary Woodland Top 10 Finish (10/11)
• Rickie Fowler Top 20 Finish (7/2)

Ludvig Åberg looked a great fit for this course pre-tournament. The Swede is only two strokes off the lead after his putter compensated for some woes off the tee on Thursday. Don’t be surprised if he’s in contention deep into Sunday.

Matt Fitzpatrick is one shot off the lead and didn’t really put a foot wrong in the opening round. Two birdies in the final two holes ensured he finished on a high.

Taking 10/11 on a Gary Woodland top 10 finish might not seem like the best option when he’s 3/1 for the top five. Woodland was miles ahead of the pack in tee to green strokes gained on Thursday and could’ve been several shots ahead if a few more putts fell.

The 42-year-old has been hot and cold since winning the Houston Open, though, and that’s his only top five in his last 25 starts. He’s got four top 10s since the start of April.

Fowler has three top 20s in his last four starts. His putting form suggests he will get back on track on the greens, and hitting more greens should limit the damage that his patchy around the green play can have.

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*