MMA
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues Predictions
UFC returns to Sacramaneto for the first time since 2019 as the #6 ranked middleweight Anthony Hernandez looks to reassert himself against the divisions #11, Gregory Rodrigues. Here’s William Hill News’ main event prediction.
Anthony Hernandez looks to bounce back from his first UFC loss when he headlines UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues against knockout artist Gregory Rodrigues in California.
Fight Details
- Date: Sunday 23rd August 2026 (2:40am BST)
- Venue: Golden 1 Centre, Sacramento
- Main Event: Middleweight – Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Odds and Predictions
- Anthony Hernandez – 1/2
- Gregory Rodrigues – 8/5
Hernandez’s wrestling and pace have troubled every middleweight put in front of him bar Strickland, and Rodrigues doesn’t carry the same fight-ending power that undid him in Houston. Expect Hernandez to come out pressing forward early, closing distance and hunting takedowns to nullify Rodrigues’ heavy hands before they can find the mark. If he can get the Brazilian to the mat and grind through the championship rounds, his volume and control should be enough to win out on the cards.
Rodrigues will have his moments on his feet and could make things uncomfortable if he catches Hernandez clean, but a repeat of the Strickland result feels unlikely against an opponent without the same one-punch power. We anticipate Hernandez to wear Rodrigues down over five rounds and get back to winning ways in Sacramento.
Our prediction: Anthony Hernandez To Win & Over 3 Rounds – 7/4
Alternative Markets
For those looking beyond the standard bour betting, Hernandez’s grappling-heavy approach makes the method of victory and round betting markets worth a look. His last two wins have come by submission and decision respectively, so backing him to win by decision or submission at EVS could offer better value.
Meanwhile, Rodrigues to win by KO or Submission, available at 7/4, is an interesting punt for those fancying an upset, given five of his seven UFC wins have come inside the distance.
Rodrigues Riding a Wave
Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues arrives full of confidence, having won three straight fights since a decision loss to Jared Cannonier last February – including a first-round knockout of Brunno Ferreira at UFC 326 in March, avenging an earlier defeat to the Brazilian. Known primarily for his heavy hands, Rodrigues is also an eight-time national Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion, adding a layer of danger on the ground that shouldn’t be overlooked.
Hernandez Looking to Regroup
“Fluffy” Hernandez arrived in Houston in February on the back of an eight-fight win streak that had him calling for a title shot. Sean Strickland had other ideas, stopping him with punches in the third round. It was the first defeat of Hernandez’s UFC career after a string of dominant grappling-led performances, including a rear-naked choke finish of Roman Dolidze and a record-breaking demolition of Michel Pereira. How he responds mentally, as much as physically, will define this one.
*Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change*
