Motor Racing

Italian Grand Prix Betting Tips 2026: Norris Heads Betting At Monza

1 hour ago

| BY Sam Cox

Following wins in Hungary and the Netherlands, reigning Formula One world champion Lando Norris is the F1 betting favourite to win this weekend’s Italian Grand Prix.

Championship leader Kimi Antonelli will start from the pitlane after an engine change.

Italian Grand Prix Winner Odds:

Lando Norris: 13/8
George Russell: 9/4
Charles Leclerc: 13/2
Lewis Hamilton: 13/2
Kimi Antonelli: 12/1
Max Verstappen: 12/1

Ferrari’s Engine Upgrade

Neither Ferrari made it onto the podium at Zandvoort. By Lewis Hamilton’s admission, the Scuderia didn’t have the car to compete at their home Grand Prix last year. The seven-time world champion is confident they will be in the mix this weekend thanks to a second engine upgrade of the year.

Hamilton, who is looking for a record-setting sixth win at Monza, hasn’t made the podium in the last three races, but has a golden opportunity this weekend to make ground in the title race with Antonelli facing a grid penalty.

Donning a special throwback livery, Ferrari are also expected to be bring aerodynamic upgrades to help their cause.

High-Speed Challenges

One of the fastest tracks on the calendar, Monza is far from the ideal circuit for the energy-harvesting F1 cars of 2026. Battery management is going to be a key part of Sunday’s race.

The cars are expected to be around two seconds per lap quicker than last year, but it’s unclear how often we will be able to see them going flat-out.

Drivers shouldn’t have to worry too much about tyre degradation with Pirelli sending their three hardest compounds. It’s a definite one-stop race with no rain forecast throughout the weekend.

What Have McLaren Got?

Wins at the last two Grands Prix boosted confidence for McLaren. Norris has moved to 24 points behind Hamilton and George Russell.

The MCL40 was always expected to be competitive at tighter circuits like the Hungaroring and Zandvoort, however. McLaren’s power unit lagged behind Mercedes earlier in the year, and they were unable to keep pace with the Ferraris on more power-hungry circuits.

The low-downforce nature of Monza is a test of how far the McLarens have come. Are they really prepared to compete? Or were the last two races simply a team benefiting from favourable tracks?

Neither Norris nor Oscar Piastri made the podium at Silverstone or Spa. There’s a bit of unknown surround the papaya team this weekend.

Italian Grand Prix Best Bets & Predictions:

Both Ferraris on the Podium (6/4)
Ferrari Winning Constructor (3/1)
Both Racing Bulls in the Top 10 (11/4)
George Russell Race Winner, Lewis Hamilton Top 3 Finish & Liam Lawson Top 10 Finish (11/2)
Lewis Hamilton Race Winner, George Russell Top 3 Finish & Andrea Kimi Antonelli Top 6 Finish (12/1)
Oscar Piastri, Liam Lawson & Fernando Alonso All Top 10 Finish (7/2)

Antonelli is probably out of podium contention. The McLarens haven’t shown sufficient straight-line speed to suggest they can compete for a race win this weekend. It quickly narrows down to Russell, Hamilton, and Charles Leclerc on the podium.

Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad finished sixth and seventh, respectively, at Silverstone. It’s not a perfect comparison for this weekend, but the demands of the cars are relatively similar. Lawson has made the podium in seven of the last eight races. Lindblad had made six podiums in a row before a 12th at Zandvoort.

Antonelli will have pace to make his way through the field, which is why the 12/1 wager has value. Monza has more than enough overtaking opportunities for the Italian to get back into the top six, even though he won’t be able to catch Hamilton and Russell.

In nine races finished this season, Piastri has seven top 10 placings. We’ve covered what Lawson has done. Elevated by long-awaited upgrades, Fernando Alonso put his Aston Martin ninth last time out. The 7/2 price on all three drivers to score points is worth backing.