Politics

Republicans have 22% chance of retaining Congress despite Trump’s $5,000 pledge

2 days ago

| BY News Team

Republicans are 7/2, an implied 22% chance, to retain control of both chambers of Congress in November’s midterm elections, according to William Hill, despite Donald Trump’s pledge that every US adult would receive $5,000 if his party keeps hold of both the House of Representatives and Senate.

Trump announced the proposed payment, described as a “Trump dividend”, at the Republican Party’s midterm convention in Dallas. The proposal would be conditional on Republicans retaining both chambers, although no mechanism for funding or delivering the payments has been set out. Estimates based on the US adult population put the potential cost at more than $1 trillion.

Democrats are the 1/6 favourites to win control of the House, with Republicans priced at 7/2. The Senate is much tighter, with both Democrats and Republicans priced at 5/6 to control the chamber after the midterms.

The most likely overall outcome is Democrat control of both the House and Senate at even-money. A divided Congress, with Democrats winning the House and Republicans retaining the Senate, is next in the market at 6/4.

A complete Republican hold on Congress is priced at 7/2, while the least likely outcome – Republicans controlling the House and Democrats taking the Senate – is a 33/1 chance.

Republicans currently hold the House by 218 seats to 214, with two vacancies, while they have a 53–47 advantage in the Senate. All 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats will be contested on 3 November.

Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Donald Trump’s proposed $5,000 payment to every US citizen should his party win both the House and Senate has put November’s midterms firmly back in the spotlight, but the latest odds show that Republicans still have work to do if they are to retain control of Congress.

“Democrats are clear favourites to regain the House at 1/6, while the Senate is effectively a coin toss at 5/6 each. That makes a divided Congress, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate, a probable outcome at 6/4.

“Republicans are 7/2 to keep both chambers, so Trump’s proposed payout is far from impossible, but the market currently expects the House to be the major obstacle to a full Republican victory in November.”