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BMW PGA Championship Prediction 2026: McIlroy Heads Wentworth Odds But 16/1 Fancy Looks Overpriced

2 hours ago

| BY Sam Cox

Rory McIlroy is the golf betting favourite for the 2026 BMW PGA Championship this weekend. Jon Rahm sits second in the latest odds behind McIlroy.

Ludvig Åberg and Tommy Fleetwood are tied for the third-shortest odds at 14s. Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Joaquin Niemann are the only other players shorter than 20/1.

BMW PGA Championship Best Bets

Viktor Hovland to win (16/1)
Patrick Reed top 5 finish (3/1)
Aaron Rai top 10 finish (3/1)
Shane Lowry top 20 finish (21/20)

Hovland finished second at the Tour Championship, despite holding a lead going into the final round. The Norwegian had a strong end to the season overall, though, including a win at the Travelers Championship and a third at the Canadian Open.

He’s finished in the top five in each of his last three appearances at Wentworth. Hot with his putter during the playoffs and elite on approach, Hovland has the game to win this weekend and he’s a fair price in sports betting markets on the event.

Patrick Reed has been in the top five in each of his last four appearances at Wentworth. His approach play was dialled in at the last two events, so we can expect him to hit plenty of greens this week. A tie for second at the Irish Open shows he’s in good form and can compete this weekend.

Rai has finished in the top five in the last three editions of this event. Winner of the PGA Championship and tied for 11th at the US Open, the Englishman is highly accurate off the tee and boasts strong iron play. He’s a previous winner of the Wyndham Championship and finished fifth at Sedgefield last year.

Lowry won the Irish Open in dominant fashion powered by immaculate approach play and near-perfect putting. His record at Wentworth is phenomenal, with 2025 as the only exception. Going back to 2017, last year was the only time he’s finished outside the top 20.

The Course

Wentworth in Surrey is the venue for this weekend’s BMW PGA Championship. It’s a tight, relatively flat heathland course, which has been remodelled numerous times in the 21st century.

The greens are generally difficult to read, but that hasn’t stopped every winner since 2017 posting 17 under or better.

Driving accuracy and distance haven’t been particularly important in recent editions of this event. Hitting greens in regulation has been a better indicator of success, including both of last season’s playoff competitors ranking in the top six in greens in regulation.

We also want to see high levels of scrambling for golfers to compete deep into Sunday. Green changes have meant putting has become much more important – prior to 2017, several players went on to win despite posting mediocre putting numbers.

Keep an eye on the weather forecast. There’s a bit of rain expected across the first three days, but autumnal conditions in the UK are notoriously unpredictable.

Course Form

Most recent winners have enjoyed strong previous outings at Wentworth. Lowry had a string of top six finishes before winning his title, and the last two champions were previous winners.

The same names tend to be in the mix come Sunday. It was Francesco Molinari on a few occasions, Alex Norén absolutely loves Wentworth, and previous winner Tyrrell Hatton had a seventh-place finish to his name before he finished top of the pile in 2020.

Showings at the European Masters have often led to good performances at Wentworth, which surely stands Thirston Lawrence in good stead. For PGA Tour players, the Wyndham Championship is a pretty good comparison. Norén and Aaron Rai are two players to have excelled at Sedgefield and Wentworth in recent years.