Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s Blog: Sweet on Sugar in the Rockfel Stakes
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck is on hand with his best bets across the card at Newmarket on Friday.
Friday, Newmarket
We start off in the Rosemary Stakes (1.15pm) with LIZZANA, who has had a pause to refresh since her excellent third in the Italian Oaks – prior to which she placed in the Italian Guineas. Now Italian Classic form is not known for its strength, but there is a bit of depth to the San Siro run – in behind, horses like Prizeland went out and won the Galtres Stakes, Lady Mara has gone on to show pretty good form in patent company, and I think that puts Lizzana back into this Listed race with a pretty decent chance. She’s unexposed and had some pretty good form as a two-year-old which suggests she is more than useful – and her trainer has had a good autumn. She will appreciate this nice ground and she’s my selection from stall two.
I will be disappointed if INIS MOR can’t win the Group 3 Princess Royal Stakes (1.50pm). while it has been well documented that the stable has been out of form, but they broke the seal this week with a nice winner and most of their horses are running pretty creditably. This filly is very talented, I’m not sure she’s had her ideal set up so far this season, but I think a nicely run race at a mile and half will suit her well. Clearly, the addition of Ryan Moore is not going to a major inconvenience. She’s a smooth traveller, will appreciate the nice ground, and today ought to be her day.
I think the value in the Rockfel Stakes (2.25pm) could lie with SUGAR YES PLEASE. You could argue that her Sweet Solera form is not quote on par with what the likes of Light Of Dawn achieved at Royal Ascot or in the Prestige, but she is a fast-improving filly who only started racing in June and has made huge strides in three runs. In addition, she seemed to really thrive when stepped up to seven-furlongs and would have won the Sweet Solera more impressively had she not had to wait for a bit of room in the closing stages. Runners from this stable in patent races are persistently underestimated, but this filly is pretty talented, and I think she can take another step forward here.
The Joel Stakes (3.00pm) is a tricky one because I think Talk Of New York is much the best and he will probably win, but there’s no value n his price. This race doesn’t have a great each-way shape to it, but in the event that Talk Of New York is his own worst enemy and pulls too hard, I’d chance a small win bet on COLORI FOREVER who’s got a bit to find, but I thought was given too much to do behind Persica and The Lost King last time. I see no reason why he shouldn’t be right upside against those two today. If the favourite does blow out, I think Colori Forever has got a good a chance as any and is the overpriced one in the race.
KOKBASTAU is my selection in the Godolphin Stakes (3.35pm). I thought they might take a crack at the Cambridgeshire with this horse tomorrow, but they’ve chosen to come this route, suggesting that they think he is a patent class animal already. It was strong form off the back of the handicap win at Sandown, which has already been franked. The market here is being largely made by Fortitudine who, albeit has been impressive in two starts, hasn’t really beaten much. So, my preference is to go with the solid handicapping form of Kokbastau who I think is ready for this step back up in trip and ready for Stakes company.
