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Bahrain Grand Prix Predictions: 10/11 For Mercedes To Flex Muscles & Best Bets In Malaysia

1 hour ago

| BY Alex McMahon

Kimi Antonelli is the 11/8 F1 betting favourite for this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix and William Hill preview the big race ahead of Sunday.

Formula One cars will take on the 3.44-mile Sepang International Circuit for the first time since 2017. Due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, Bahrain’s rearranged Grand Prix has been relocated to Malaysia.

Less than half of the on the grid have F1 experience at Sepang. Fernando Alonso is a three-time winner, Max Verstappen won in 2017, and Lewis Hamilton stood atop the podium in 2014. Only seven other drivers were involved in the last Grand Prix in Malaysia.

Bahrain Grand Prix Best Bets

Both Mercedes Top 3 Finish (10/11)
Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri & Arvid Lindblad All Top 10 Finish (5/4)
Both Racing Bulls Top 10 Finish (5/2)
George Russell Race Winner & Kimi Antonelli Fastest Lap (11/1)

Mercedes have had five double podium finishes already this season. The power advantage hasn’t been chipped away at all that significantly despite upgrades from the pursuing teams.

There are no grid penalties to worry about – Mercedes will be eyeing another one-two on a circuit where straight-line speed makes them almost unbeatable even before their latest upgrade.

Arvid Lindblad for a top 10 finish has been one of our favourite bets this season. The rookie has returned points in nine of the last 10 races.

The only time Hamilton didn’t earn points was when he retired in Madrid. Piastri had really good pace in qualifying last weekend and has seven top 10 finishes from his last nine completed races.

We can also ride with Lindblad by backing the Racing Bulls for a double points finish. Liam Lawson was in the points before his collision was Lindblad last week. Lawson has six top 10 finishes in his last eight races with the Racing Bulls.

The race winner has set the fastest lap in only five of the 15 races so far this season. Antonelli achieved the feat in Monaco, Shanghai, Suzuka, and Silverstone. Russell did it in Baku.

It’s not exactly far-fetched to imagine a scenario where Russell wins the race and Antonelli has the fastest lap, such is Mercedes’ expected dominance.

Maybe Antonelli is chasing Russell down in the closing stages and puts up a few purple times but can’t quite get past his teammate. There’s definitely value at 11/1.

The Track

Sepang is a popular circuit with drivers and fans alike. It has plenty of overtaking opportunities thanks to its straights, and drivers will have access to straight mode on four occasions each lap.

The middle sector has several high-speed corners. It is important cars are competitive through this part of the lap to put themselves in position for overtakes on the straights.

The forecast is pretty mixed this weekend. There’s a risk of stormy conditions on Friday, and that could shake things up significantly if it gets pushed into Saturday’s qualifying.

Will Anyone Match Mercedes?

Long straights have favoured Mercedes throughout the year. The Silver Arrows have won three races on the bounce after a comparatively quiet spell, and they are bringing an upgrade to Sepang this weekend.

Ferrari are 160 points behind Mercedes in the Constructors’ Championship after Russell’s win in Baku. Despite Isack Hadjar and Verstappen finishing on the podium in Azerbaijan, McLaren still look like Mercedes’ biggest threat.

Ferrari haven’t had a podium in the last five races. Hamilton and Charles Leclerc have consistently placed in the top six, but Norris has a couple of race wins to his name and finished third in Madrid.

Oscar Piastri also showed good pace in qualifying in Azerbaijan before a disappointing performance on Sunday.

Tension Building

Franco Colapinto’s misjudgement under braking took Norris out of the race in Baku, leading to some inflammatory comments from the Brit.

Norris has since apologised, but Colapinto’s mistake will still be a topic after he knocked teammate Pierre Gasly out of the race. Colapinto has a five-place grid penalty this weekend.

Arvid Lindblad, who has been consistent throughout the year, similarly collided with his teammate. Liam Lawson was sent spinning by Lindblad and the Kiwi finished outside the points for only the third time since Miami.

Then there’s the uncertainty at Haas. Esteban Ocon won’t be with the team next year, and heads into this weekend off the back of his first points finish since Monaco.

The Frenchman doesn’t have many options for an F1 seat in 2027, particularly after Aston Martin confirmed Alonso and Lance Stroll will be returning.