Open de España Predictions: Home Favourite Backed at 22/1

Ludivg Åberg is the golf betting favourite for the Open de España this weekend.

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Jon Rahm, a three-time winner at Club de Campo Villa, had to withdraw from his home event due to the impending arrival of his fourth child. The absence of the Spaniard leaves Åberg as the clear favourite ahead of Shane Lowry, Eugenio López-Chacarra, and Patrick Reed.

Best Bets

• Angel Ayora to Win (22/1 Each-Way 10 Places)
• Sam Bairstow Top 10 Finish (5/1)
• Antoine Rozner Top 10 Finish (5/1)

Don’t be put off by Angel Ayora’s mediocre showings of late. He’s had seven top 10s on the DP World Tour this year and tied for ninth in Madrid last year. Spaniards have an excellent track record at their home open, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see the 22-year-old become the latest home favourite to get the win.

Only two golfers in this field have played more rounds than Sam Bairstow over the last three months. There have been no signs of fatigue, though, with Bairstow recording six top 20 finishes in nine events since he missed the cut at The Open Championship. He’s got distance off the tee and could win this event if he putts like he did last week.

Antoine Rozner is one of the longer drivers in this field. The Frenchman has finished 21st or better in four of his last six events and ranks fifth in the field in tee-to-green strokes gained over the last three months. He’s got the game to be competitive deep into the weekend if the putter is reliable.

The Course

With a typically Spanish aesthetic, Club de Campo Villa has small greens and pretty forgiving rough. Golfers can take their chances off the tee in the knowledge that it’s easy to salvage par if they go astray.

It’s notable that Spaniards have tended to up their game for their national open. That’s not just about Rahm’s three wins, either. Ángel Hidalgo and Rafa Cabrera-Bello have won two of the last five editions, and we’ve seen plenty of Spaniards in contention deep into Sunday.

Firmer conditions can make the course more challenging, particularly when the pin positions are demanding, but we’ve seen a lot of low scores in recent years, with -20 a realistic score for the eventual champion.

Form & Track Record

Julien Guerrier tied for 14th in his home open a couple of weeks ago, but the Frenchman has three top 10 finishes in this event and landed in the top 20 in his two other appearances.

Winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last week, Adrian Meronk struggled in Paris after finishing in the top 20 in the Irish Open and the British Masters.

Jayden Schaper and Grant Forrest failed to make the cut at the Dunhill Links, but they have enjoyed playing in Madrid. Forrest has finished third on two occasions, and Schaper was fifth in 2025 and ninth in 2024.