MMA
Allen vs Duncan UFC Predictions: The 5/2 Pick You Can’t Ignore
Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan meet in a fascinating middleweight main event at UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday, with William Hill News offering tips.
Allen is the slight 4/5 favourite, while Duncan is available at EVS, with the draw priced at 33/1.
The five-round contest pits Allen’s grappling and submission game against Duncan’s varied striking, making the method-of-result market particularly interesting. The UFC’s own preview describes it as a potential clash of styles, with Allen likely to look for grappling opportunities while Duncan will want to keep the fight standing.
The Prediction
Allen is the 4/5 favourite, but Duncan at EVS looks more than capable of making this a close contest.
The method market makes Duncan’s 21/10 KO/TKO/DQ particularly interesting given that 10 of his 15 professional wins have come by knockout.
However, Allen’s grappling advantage and experience should allow him to dictate enough of the fight to edge out a competitive victory.
Prediction: Brendan Allen to beat Christian Leroy Duncan by decision at 5/2.
Allen the narrow favourite
Allen comes into the fight on a three-fight winning streak, having beaten Marvin Vettori, Reinier de Ridder and Edmen Shahbazyan during that run. His latest victory came via unanimous decision against Shahbazyan in June.
The American has built a reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous submission specialists, and his ability to take opponents down and work from dominant positions could be the key to victory.
That makes his 27/10 price to win by submission particularly appealing compared with the 5/2 available for a decision victory.
Allen is also 17/2 to win by KO, TKO or DQ, highlighting where his biggest threat is expected to come from.
Duncan brings serious knockout power
Duncan has won his last five fights and enters the biggest main-event opportunity of his UFC career after consecutive decision victories over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier.
The Englishman has a particularly strong finishing record, with 10 of his 15 professional victories coming by KO/TKO according to his UFC record.
That is reflected in the method market, where Duncan is just 21/10 to win by KO/TKO/DQ — comfortably his shortest-priced method.
His submission price is 25/1, while a decision victory is 9/2, suggesting the expectation is that Duncan’s best route to victory is through his striking.
A battle of styles
The biggest question is whether Duncan can keep the fight at range.
Allen has the experience advantage and will likely be looking to test Duncan’s takedown defence and grappling. Duncan, meanwhile, possesses the athleticism and striking variety to cause serious problems if he can prevent Allen from establishing prolonged control.
Allen himself believes Duncan’s main route to victory is catching him with a clean shot, while insisting he has the advantage in the grappling exchanges.
With both fighters capable of finishing, this could be a particularly intriguing five-round contest.
Prices accurate at time of writing – odds subject to change
