By William Hill
22nd January 2019
After two thrilling, all-the-way-to-overtime conference finals it’s full steam ahead to Super Bowl LIII on Sunday 3rd of February and high time we had a look at some trends to help you pick the winner.
The New England Patriots are 37/50 money line Super Bowl betting favourites, with the LA Rams outsiders at odds of 23/20, despite beating previous market leaders New Orleans in the NFC Championship final.
Here are four trends that unite the majority of recent Vince Lombardi Trophy triumphants and which sides fit them.
1) Super Bowl-experienced players
The finalists with fewest players to have contested a Super Bowl before have won eight of the last 11 editions. So, bad news for a Pats side who are contesting their third in a row.
2) Regular season records
In a similarly counterintuitive fashion, 10 of the last 13 winners had the worse regular season record of the two sides contesting the big game.
New England have easily the more modest ledger in that respect, going 11 and 5 before the New Year, compared to the Rams 13 and 3.
3) Shirt colour
A bizarre trend that is as compelling as it is coincidental, 12 of the last 14 winners were wearing a majority-white kit.
Most NFL sides have a white change strip, but the nominal home team in the final gets to choose their swag. Last year, in an instance of poetic justice, ‘home’ side New England chose to wear white and lost.
This year the choice of whether to pander to this trend will fall to the NFC Champions. Will the Rams try to force fate by wearing white on the night?
A time-honoured adage is that defences rather than offences win Super Bowl rings and four of the last five winners had the lower regular season points-against score of the sides to contest the decider.
This another in favour of the (Tom) Brady bunch, who shipped 59 less than the Rams in 2018.