NFL Free Agency Takeaways & Predictions (2026)

A wild couple of days of NFL free agency have reshaped the league. The Kansas City Chiefs revamped their offence, the Atlanta Falcons made a curious decision at quarterback, and the Cincinnati Bengals made much-needed improvements on the defensive side of the ball.

Despite losing several key players, the defending champion Seattle Seahawks remain the NFL betting favourites for next year’s Super Bowl.

Chiefs’ Offense Ready to Fire Again

Kenneth Walker III is the reigning Super Bowl MVP and one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL. Kansas City was near the bottom of the league in explosive plays from its running backs in 2025.

Travis Kelce has been re-signed. Walker was brought in on a three-year deal. And there are reports Patrick Mahomes could be healthy for Week 1 after suffering a torn ACL towards the end of last season.

The defence has been hit, however, with Trent McDuffie traded to the Rams for a first-round pick and Bryan Cook and Jaylen Watson lost in free agency. Look for Kansas City to use that first on its defence.

The Chiefs are out at 14/1 at the time of writing. It feels like a fair price given the uncertainty over Mahomes, but it’s clearly been an exciting offseason at Arrowhead.

New-Look Bengals

Signing Cook and Boye Mafe is a starting point for Cincinnati’s defence. There’s more work to do be done – a linebacker is a must and there should be depth pieces added elsewhere.

Cincinnati sits at 25/1 to win the Super Bowl. This defence has been among the worst in the NFL over the last couple of seasons, but the Bengals have a track record of effectively overhauling their team across the summer.

Keep an eye on Cincy’s moves in the coming days. This team could be excellent value if they continue on this trajectory.

Crosby Uncertainty

The Baltimore Ravens were going to give up two first-round picks for Maxx Crosby. Then, on Tuesday night, it broke that Baltimore had pulled out of the deal over concerns with Crosby’s healthy.

This has a massive knock-on across the league. Las Vegas had been operating under the assumption they would receive two firsts and have plenty of cap space. A raft of deals were made, including the record-breaking pact with Tyler Lindebaum.

Does Baltimore become a landing spot for Trey Hendrickson? Do other teams move to acquire Crosby, easing the Raiders’ chaos? For now, it sounds like the Cowboys are steering clear of the Crosby sweepstakes after landing Rashan Gary.

With no Crosby, Baltimore’s price of 10/1 is too short. They lost one of the best centers in the league and their only season is John Simpson at guard. There’s work to do.

NFC South Swings

Along with Walker getting a big deal from the Chiefs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints added Kenneth Gainwell and Travis Etienne, respectively.

New Orleans quietly finished the 2025 season on a high and looks ready to take a meaningful step forward. Tampa Bay has a two-headed monster in the backfield with Gainwell and Bucky Irving.

The NFC South has become much more interesting across this free agency period.

Along with the Saints adding talent, the Carolina Panthers made marquee signings in Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd to improve a defence which ranked near the bottom of the league in pressure rate. Despite those moves, Carolina remains out at 100/1 to win the Super Bowl.

The Atlanta Falcons, meanwhile, seem to have missed an opportunity with the bizarre decision to sign Tua Tagovailoa.

Underwhelming Teams

The Green Bay Packers have seen a lot head out the door without much in return. There are glaring needs on the defensive line and in the secondary, while Romeo Doubbs leaves a large hole in the offence.

There’s understandable scepticism about how the Tennessee Titans spent, and the same goes for the New York Giants. Where the Rams have been proactive, Seattle’s stacked title-winning roster is considerably weaker, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were usurped as Super Bowl favourites in the coming days.

Underwhelming is often a word associated with the New York Jets. Not this time. The Jets traded for T’Vondre Sweat and Minkah Fitzpatrick before making several significant moves in free agency. This team isn’t going to win the Super Bowl, but if they add Kyler Murray, they could be in the playoff mix.