NFL MVP Predictions & Betting Tips (2025)

No one can have MVP sewn up before Week 7. In some years, there will be a clear leader, or at least a couple of players that have made it obvious it will be a two-horse race.

That’s not the case in 2025. As the NFL betting markets show, three quarterbacks have differentiated themselves from the crowd. There’s very little to choose between the trio, and their lead is far from unassailable, with four other players between 14/1 and 18/1.

Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, two of the preseason favorites, are out of contention due to injuries. Two other familiar faces sit atop the latest betting odds, however.

Patrick Mahomes – 2/1

There’s been a wave of support for Patrick Mahomes in the MVP race. Kansas City started the year 2-0 but has put together a 3-1 run to get back to .500 and looks in prime position to win the AFC West once again.

Mahomes’ numbers aren’t particularly eye-catching overall, yet he’s been exceptional over the last three weeks and looks back to somewhere near his best.

The mark of 6.3 rushes per game is a career-high. Only two quarterbacks have more yards on the ground and many will fancy the Chiefs in Super Bowl winner odds once again.

Josh Allen – 11/4

Leading the league in rushing yards and with three rushing touchdowns, Josh Allen is also fifth in touchdown rate. There have been some vintage Allen moments, but this hasn’t been his best six-game stretch, even with the Bills sitting 4-2.

Thirteen quarterbacks are averaging more passing yards per game. Allen threw two picks and was held to 180 yards in the Week 6 loss to the Falcons.

Buffalo will hope to get healthier over its bye week before facing the Panthers and Chiefs in Weeks 8 and 9, respectively.

Baker Mayfield – 10/3

It feels harsh for Baker Mayfield to be outside the top two. He’s having another phenomenal season.

Mayfield has taken the Buccaneers to 5-1, with four fourth-quarter comebacks to his name. He’s had one interception all year, thrown 12 touchdowns, and had Tampa Bay humming on offense, even with a depleted receiver group.

A statement win over the Lions in Week 7 could see Mayfield become the MVP favorite. He’s a serious contender for this award with the Buccaneers likely to win 12+ games.

Drake Maye – 14/1

Drake Maye has had a passer rating of 100.0 or better in five consecutive games. He’s also only the fourth quarterback aged 23 or younger to have five straight games with 200+ passing yards and a 100.0 or better passer rating.

Fifth in total passing yards and second in completion percentage, Maye has lived up to – and even exceeded – expectations through the first six weeks of the season.

New England has a very favourable remaining schedule. Maye will be firmly in the MVP mix if he guides the Pats to 11 or more wins, even if they don’t win the division.

Longshots to Keep an Eye On – Dak Prescott (50/1), Sam Darnold (40/1)

Dallas being 2-3-1 keeps Dak Prescott out of serious MVP contention. Prescott, though, has been playing at a very high level this season.

Sam Darnold has shown his 2024 season wasn’t a fluke. He’s orchestrating an impressive Seahawks offense and has taken Seattle to 4-2.

Prescott is second in passing yards and third in completion percentage, a feat made all the more impressive by CeeDee Lamb missing the last three games. The Cowboys should be 5-4-1 when they face the Eagles in Week 12.

Darnold has been airing it out. His chemistry with Jaxon Smith-Njigba has powered Seattle to an elite offense and leaves Darnold as the league leader in yards per attempt and yards per completion. Only Spencer Rattler has a better bad throw rate. Prescott is third in that category.

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*