Basketball
NBA MVP Predictions & Betting Tips (2025/26)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the basketball betting favourite for NBA MVP a week into the regular season.
There has been a change in second place, with Victor Wembanyama’s odds shortening considerably after winning Western Conference Player of the Week.
Luka Dončić scored 43 and 49 points in his first two games of the season before being ruled out for a week with finger and leg injuries. Three-time league MVP Nikola Jokić leads the Association in assists and rebounds but has taken only 18 field-goal attempts over his last two games.
Giannis Antetokounmpo claimed Eastern Conference Player of the Week and sits at 8/1. The Greek Freak rounds out the top five, who are far clear of everyone else. Anthony Edwards (50/1) is ruled out for at least a fortnight.
NBA MVP Odds:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 7/4
- Victor Wembanyama – 11/4
- Nikola Jokić – 7/2
- Luka Dončić – 11/2
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 8/1
- Anthony Edwards – 50/1
Unstoppable Wemby
Wembanyama’s various offseason endeavours have had the desired impact. He’s got noticeably stronger and has become a far more imposing player on both ends of the floor.
Offensively, he has been a mix of Shaquille O’Neal and Kevin Durant. Occasionally, he shows off some Kyrie Irving handles. It has been like watching a created 2K player with 99 on every stat, who also happens to be 7 feet and a lot.
On defense, he’s even better than before. He’s averaging 6.3 stocks per game. There are already numerous highlight clips of Wembanyama repeatedly rejecting shots before leading the fast break. Opponents are terrified of getting a shot up when he’s in the same postcode.
Joker Easing His Way Into the Season
We’ve seen Jokić enter the season undercooked before.
It’s not a worry in an 82-game regular season, and the future Hall of Famer is more than good enough to put up big numbers when he’s far from peak condition.
Denver is third in net rating through three games. Jokić has 46 rebounds and 35 assists.
Scoring Outbursts
Dončić and Gilgeous-Alexander are the guard representatives in this MVP race. Dončić passed 40 points in the first two games of the season. Aided by a pair of double overtime games, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging over 34 points per game and dropped 55 on the Pacers.
The two-point percentage is at a career-high for Gilgeous-Alexander, and his three-point shot will get back on track with time.
OKC is guaranteed to have a record worthy of an MVP. It’s less certain for the Lakers, but Dončić looks the better value of the two on Oct. 29.
There might be some voter fatigue with Gilgeous-Alexander after he pipped Jokić last season, while Dončić has been an MVP-in-waiting for half a decade. He’s feasible the Slovenian averages 32/10/10.
Strong Starters
Giannis and Wembanyama have been the league’s two best players so far. A former Defensive Player of the Year and the overwhelming favourite for the award this year, the pair are the two best defenders (by a wide margin) in this five-horse race.
Both are at risk of being on middling teams. Neither are guaranteed an automatic playoff berth, but both teams have started well, and both players are capable of carrying their teams to the top six, which would only enhance their MVP candidacy.
Wembanyama’s numbers, if he reaches the 65-game threshold, are going to ensure he’s a top three MVP candidate. The same should be true of Giannis, who is averaging 36/14/7 so far this season.
Gilgeous-Alexander is the player to avoid at his current price. Dončić and Antetokounmpo represent the best value – the pair are perennial candidates for this award with the upside to post the kind of numbers that make them impossible to ignore.
*Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change*
