Basketball
NBA Rookie of the Year Predictions & Betting Tips (2025)
The NBA Rookie of the Year market threatened to be a foregone conclusion.
Cooper Flagg was the heavy basketball betting favourite before opening night, but the first overall pick’s lead has decreased dramatically with VJ Edgecombe’s historic start to life in the NBA.
It’s very much a two-horse race at this point, with Flagg priced at 10/11 and Edgecombe (11/8) as the only other player shorter than 20/1.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds:
- Cooper Flagg – 10/11
- VJ Edgecombe – 11/8
- Tre Johnson – 20/1
- Dylan Harper – 20/1
- Kon Knueppel – 25/1
- Cedric Coward – 40/1
- Ace Bailey – 40/1
Edgecombe’s Scorching Start
Edgecombe erupted onto the scene, scoring 34 points in a debut win over the Celtics. Electric when driving into the paint, making smart decisions with the ball, and draining outside shots, he played like a player with years of NBA experience.
It was the most points scored on an NBA debut since Wilt Chamberlain. He has gone on to set the record for being the first guard to average 25/5/5 in his first three NBA games, and along with Tyrese Maxey, is half of the most prolific scoring backcourt in the first three games of an NBA season.
Not only draining outside shots and running in transition, Edgecombe is making the right pass, as illustrated by his 22 assists in four games. He’s also averaging two stocks per game.
Flagg at Point Guard
Flagg has a .478 true shooting percentage. His turnover rate is higher than his assist rate. Dallas has leant into super-size lineups with P.J. Washington at the three and Anthony Davis at the four. It leaves Flagg, a rookie with very limited point guard experience, playing the one with a shrunk floor.
The Mavs should be putting the ball in the hands of Cooper Flagg, allowing him to work in on-ball reps, run secondary pick-and-rolls, and settle into the NBA. Instead, they have thrown him into a situation that even some vastly experienced point guards would struggle in.
This is clearly a medium-term plan for the Mavs at the very least. It’s a puzzling decision when thinking about Flagg’s development, and from a betting perspective, it clearly jeopardises his Rookie of the Year candidacy.
Fringe Contenders
Kon Knueppel set the record for the most made threes in a player’s first four career NBA games. Dylan Harper has impressed alongside Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio. Tre Johnson has made 39.3% of his threes on seven attempts per game.
Getting big minutes on a depleted Grizzlies team, Cedric Coward had 57 points through his first three games. Ace Bailey, the fifth overall pick, has been given a minor role on the Jazz, but that’s bound to change in the coming weeks.
Usage is key for any player hoping to rival Edgecombe and Flagg. Bailey and Harper are the most likely to put up big enough numbers, though the latter’s chances depend on his role when De’Aaron Fox is healthy.
Flagg is deservedly the favourite a week into the season, but bettors should be considering backing Edgecombe given what we have seen so far. Running Flagg at point guard for the season wouldn’t be the first error of judgement from Dallas.
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
