As the build-up to the general election rolls into its final week ahead of the December 12 vote, there is still plenty of movement in the betting market as all the major parties jostle for position.

Chances of a majority government?

There’s a plethora of factors that could come into play here, in particular the SNP’s success in Scotland and whether or not Jo Swinson’s Liberal Democrats can perform better than in 2017’s snap election.

The Conservatives are odds-on 3/10 to land more than the 326 seats needed for a working majority and 5/6 to land 345 parliamentary seats or more.

Few pollsters have predicted a Labour outright majority and that is reflected in the market at 20/1. Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s more likely route to No. 10 is via a minority, coalition or supply and confidence arrangement with the smaller parties. The odds of them landing 219 seats or more, less than their current 243, stands at 5/6. No party to land an outright majority, therefore, sits at 11/4.

What will that mean for Brexit?

Boris Johnson has stated that a Conservative government would get Brexit done as soon as possible, but even if they do collect a majority on December 12, the United Kingdom leaving the European Union before the end of 2019 seems too short a time frame and is currently 12/1. Johnson has pledged that the process would be complete by January 31, 2020, with that option available at 1/3.

Labour have promised a ‘meaningful vote’ if they are to win the election, which would take place after they have negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the EU. It’s unclear exactly how long this process could take but Brexit to take place in January 2022 or later is currently 4/1.

Let it snow?

There hasn’t been a UK general election held in December since 1923, with the weather potentially having a role to play yet. With that in mind, snow to be recorded on the Houses of Parliament on election day is 6/1.

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