Boxing
Canelo Alvarez v Jermell Charlo preview: Canelo heavy favourite to defend titles
Canelo Alvarez defends his undisputed super middleweight world titles against challenger Jermell Charlo on Saturday night in Las Vegas.
We preview the action below.
Canelo Alvarez v Jermell Charlo – Sunday 05:00 (Approx. UK Time)
In one of the more intriguing matchups of recent years, Jermell Charlo, the reigning 154-pound champion, is making a bold leap up two weight classes to challenge Canelo Alvarez, the dominant 168-pounder.
Both fighters are 33 years old, sharing a warrior’s spirit, but their paths to this clash differ significantly. Alvarez, a quick-handed athlete, has leveraged his innate toughness and work ethic to carve a Hall of Fame career, continually evolving as a fighter.
In contrast, Charlo, possessing greater athleticism and a vicious killer instinct, has honed his skills under trainer Derrick James, becoming a knockout artist in recent years. Yet, while Charlo may have the edge in natural athleticism, Alvarez’s discipline and experience offers a fine counter.
In terms of skill set, Alvarez’s meticulous approach to the sport, exemplified by his ring control and precision punching, sets him apart. His defensive improvements have elevated his all-around game. Charlo, while explosive and known for his punching power, also showcases technical prowess. His ability to dissect opponents is as much a testament to his skill set as his knockout ability. In this aspect, Alvarez holds the upper hand due to his more comprehensive boxing toolkit.
When it comes to punching power, Alvarez isn’t a one-punch knockout artist like Deontay Wilder, but his relentless attack and heavy hands have led to numerous stoppages. Charlo, on the other hand, may possess greater pound-for-pound punching power, as evidenced by his eight knockout victories in his last nine fights. However, the challenge lies in the fact that Charlo has primarily faced opponents from the 154-pound division, while Alvarez is a 168-pounder with exceptional durability. Therefore, the edge here goes to Alvarez.
Durability is another factor to consider. Alvarez’s 18-year career is a testament to his robustness. With an exceptionally strong chin, he’s never been knocked down in 63 professional fights. Charlo, although dropped once in a bout against Charles Bellamy in 2014, has proven to be a tough, resilient fighter who can withstand punishment. However, it’s worth noting that Charlo hasn’t faced a 168-pound opponent, which could test his durability in this contest. Thus, Alvarez holds the advantage here.
Assuming Alvarez is at full health and his recent subpar performances were due to an injured left wrist, the matchup leans towards a classic scenario of a good big man versus a good little man – in such cases, the larger fighter typically prevails. Alvarez is expected to stalk Charlo, control the ring, and wear him down with powerful punches, potentially securing a late stoppage or a clear decision victory, and his odds of 1/4 to win the fight certainly reflect that.
However, if Alvarez’s health remains a concern or his recent decline is attributable to other factors, Charlo could capitalise on any vulnerability, and his odds of 3/1 may look tempting. Ultimately, though, it’s unlikely Charlo can hurt Alvarez, making it difficult to envision an upset.
A more specific punt would be Alvarez to win by 10th round knockout, which is available at 20/1, though the Mexican to win on points is deemed to be the most likely scenario at 4/5.
