Boxing
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez v John Ryder: Latest odds and pre-fight breakdown
Canelo Alvarez v John Ryder odds, pre-fight preview, how to watch, betting promotions
Canelo Alvarez v John Ryder fight preview
Date: Saturday, 6th May
Where: Estadio Akron, Guadalajara, Mexico
How to watch in the UK: DAZN
Records: Canelo Alvarez (58-2-2, 39 KOs, undisputed super middle weight champion), John Ryder (32-5, 18 KOs)
Latest fight odds for Canelo Alvarez v John Ryder
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How does Canelo Alvarez win the fight?
As so often, the right hand will be the key to victory against the southpaw.
Canelo Alvarez’s stock has fallen sharply since his shutout defeat to Dmitry Bivol at light heavyweight and his underwhelming points victory over a faded Gennady Golovkin in their trilogy fight.
That said, most analysts still expect Canelo to have little trouble against John Ryder, who gets his opportunity for a big late-career payday after impressive wins over Daniel Jacobs and Zach Parker.
As well as a clear edge in skill, power and big-fight experience, Canelo will have the backing of a partisan 50,000-strong crowd in what is his first fight in his home town of Guadalajara since 2011.
Key to the champ’s fight plan will be timing the southpaw with the right hand when Ryder lunges inside and throws hooks to the body.
Keep an eye out for the uppercut, which proved so effective for Canelo against another British lefty, Billy Joe Saunders, in 2021.
Ryder tends to dip and lean in when he closes the distance, so the champ may have success with a well-timed uppercut in this fight.
Canelo will also look to pressure Ryder towards the ropes, where he can trap the challenger and unload the right hand to head and body.
Another Brit, Liam Smith, can testify to the power of Canelo’s body attack, and if the uppercut doesn’t get Ryder a well-placed gut shot just might.
Canelo Alvarez, key stats:
- A world champion in four weight classes
- The first fighter in history to become undisputed at super middleweight
- Fifth in the Ring Magazine p4p rankings
- Has only lost once (to Dmitry Bivol) since his 2013 defeat to Floyd Mayweather
Canelo Alvarez, latest odds:
- Canelo Alvarez by KO, TKO or DQ: 1/3
- Canelo Alvarez Round 4-6: 10/3
- Canelo Alvarez By Decision or Technical Decision: 11/4
Latest fight odds for Canelo Alvarez v John Ryder
How does John Ryder win the fight?
Outhustle and outmuscle Canelo on the inside.
After defeats to the likes of Billy Joe Saunders and Nick Blackwell early in his career, Ryder stepped up to world level with a deserved points victory over Daniel Jacobs – who took both Canelo and Gennady Golovkin the distance.
A solid technician, Ryder beat Jacobs by staying defensively responsible, applying pressure and drawing on his strength and conditioning to outwork an opponent who was clearly past his best.
The Brit will have a similar fight plan against Canelo, and the key is how effective he can be at getting inside, roughing up the champ and piling up the points (a stoppage win against the granite chinned Mexican seems highly unlikely).
Many ringside observers think Canelo, a pro since he was 15, has lost a step, and Ryder will hope the champ is unable to live with the tempo he’ll bring on the night.
Ryder will look to stay in the centre of the ring and resist Canelo’s attempts to back him into the ropes where the champ can unleash fight-ending combinations.
The crowd could also be an important factor in the fight.
Will Ryder freeze in what’s sure to be a fiercely hostile environment? Or will that adversity inspire him to pull off one of the biggest shocks by a Brit on foreign soil?
And what about the judges? Even if Ryder implements his fight plan perfectly, what are his chances of getting a decision in Canelo’s backyard?
John Ryder, key stats:
- Has stopped less than half of his opponents (48.7%)
- Losses to Billy Joe Saunders and Callum Smith, both of whom were beaten by Canelo
- Best career win came in 2022 against Daniel Jacobs, who took Canelo the distance in 2019
John Ryder, latest odds:
Latest fight odds for Canelo Alvarez v John Ryder
Our verdict: How we think Canelo Alvarez v John Ryder will play out
The defeat to Bivol and lacklustre performance against Golovkin have led many to conclude that Canelo is past his prime.
Even if that’s true, the champ is still one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world and should have the class to stop Ryder and add an eighth British scalp to his resume.
Then, hopefully, we will get the fight everyone wants at super middleweight: Canelo versus the dangerous unbeaten American David Benavidez.
Key stat:
- Canelo has victories over seven British fighters, including at super middle weight against Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders
