Tyson Fury is 1/100 to beat Sefer Seferi in his first fight for two-and-a-half years so finding betting value in the bout looks to be all about working out the kind of outing his camp feels he needs.
In recent years, comeback bouts featuring high profile British boxers such as David Haye and Amir Khan have ended inside the first round and Fury’s return is 9/1 not to last out the opener.
Among the #YourOdds shouts on William Hill there’s also 4/1 about Albanian foe Seferi being knocked down before three minutes of the fight are up.
Words from Fury camp suggest early KO is not part of the comeback script
‘Tyson needs the rounds’ has been the mantra from Frank Warren, Fury’s promoter, in the build-up to this showdown and it appears his fighter is fully on board with an unrushed approach.
The Cheshire resident was informative from a round betting point of view when outlining the reasoning behind the choice of opponent for his comeback fight, saying:
“These Albanian fellas are very, very teak tough. That’s why I picked someone who is very tough.
I need the rounds because I’ve been out for how many days I don’t know, I’ve been out for a long time.
I need rounds. I don’t need a knockout after ten seconds. I need someone who’s tough, can take the punches and who can keep coming forward and put me under pressure.”
I need rounds. I don’t need a knockout after ten seconds. I need someone who’s tough, can take the punches and who can keep coming forward and put me under pressure.
For Fury’s long-term career goals a knockout at some point is essential
With Tyson Fury odds on for the knockout at 1/9 and having stopped eight of his last ten adversaries at heavyweight, it’s deemed highly unlikely that Seferi, who has fought only once previously in the 200lb and up category, will last the full 12 threes.
Fury to win in rounds 7-9 is the 11/4 favourite in the grouped round betting and against an enemy yet to be stopped in 24 fights that seems logical.
After all, a deflating points success would do little to suggest he still has the requisite power to trouble world champions Anthony Joshua or Deontay Wilder.
However, while the Albanian may be durable in the eyes of the men who handpicked him for this fight, he has not had much cause to show it in recent outings.
Of his last eight bouts, seven ended before the sixth stanza, with five over before the end of the second, just one going the distance and that contretemps a ten-round affair.
His sole heavyweight match-up, the one that went to the judges, was against Manuel Charr, who had KO’d only 17 of his 29 victims at the time – hardly a percentage illustrating enormous power.
With this in mind, the 7/4 about Fury taking his time to blow away the cobwebs before sending Seferi home with a nice cheque in rounds 4-6 looks to be a more enriching strategy.