Ashes

The Ashes First Test Predictions – Australia v England Tips (2025/26)

1 hour ago

| BY Sam Cox

The first Ashes Test begins on Friday in Perth. As of November 18th, the cricket betting markets price Australia as clear favourites to retain the urn.

England haven’t won a Test down under since their glorious 2010/11 tour – history makes the tourists as clear underdogs, despite the positive outlook of Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes.

Ashes First Test Odds:

Punters can bet on the first Ashes Test match of the 2025 series at William Hill and here is the current state of the market:

Australia – 8/13
Draw – 10/1
England – 7/4

Australia begin the series without captain Pat Cummins. Steve Smith is captaining the side in Cummins’ absence, and Scott Boland is filling in for Cummins with the ball. It lengthens Australia’s tail, and as good as Boland was in this series four years ago, he was smashed around the park by England in 2023.

England are sweating over the fitness of Mark Wood after he dealt with hamstring tightness on the first day of their warm-up match against the Lions. Shoaib Bashir was left out of the XI, instead playing with the Lions, but it would be a surprise if England went into the First Test with no spinner. Jofra Archer and Brydon Carse are expected to play, with Gus Atkinson likely to get the nod if Wood isn’t fit.

Crucial Toss

The team that’s batted first has won all five Tests at Optus Stadium. India, despite being dismissed for 150 in the first innings, defeated Australia in Perth last year thanks to a strong batting performance in the second dig.

Prior to that contest, first-inning runs have been imperative. Australia piled on big runs against Pakistan and West Indies and scored over 400 against New Zealand in 2019.

England love to chase but batting first is the way to go at Optus Stadium. The pressure will be on England’s top order to avoid the kind of calamitous starts that have so often set the tone for Ashes tours.

Value Bets On The First Ashes Test:

England to Win & Joe Root Clear Top Scorer (17/2)
Nathan Lyon Australia’s Top Bowler in First Innings (12/5)
Steve Smith over 37.5 First-Inning Runs (5/6)

England are underdogs for a reason. Their record in Australia is putrid. Much has been made of Root’s struggles in Australia, yet he still averages 35, and he comes into this series in the midst of a magnificent run in Test cricket. Away from the strenuous role of touring skipper, he’s poised for a big series. Pairing Root to top score with England to win makes plenty of sense.

It wouldn’t be the first time England have given cheap wickets away to a spinner. With an undercooked Green likely to play as the fifth bowler, look for England to be aggressive against Nathan Lyon early in this Test. That could lead to a few wickets for the veteran spinner.

Smith has been in wonderful red-ball form. He’s passed 50 in all three of his Sheffield Shield innings and averages over 50 in Test cricket in 2025 after a couple of down years.