Ashes
Ashes Fifth Test Odds & Predictions: England To End Series On A High?
England dodged the whitewash with their win at the MCG. The Ashes might be gone, but Ben Stokes’ team have the opportunity to take a degree of pride home with a 3-2 scoreline if they win in Sydney.
A much flatter pitch is expected after the MCG was deemed ‘unsatisfactory’ by the ICC. It was the second Test in this series to finish inside two days.
Despite the absences of Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, and Nathan Lyon, Australia are odds-on sports betting favourites for the Fifth Test. It doesn’t seem like there will be major changes to the XI, though Todd Murphy is expected to come in for Michael Neser or Jhye Richardson.
England are facing another enforced change to their fast-bowling unit after Gus Atkinson joined Jofra Archer and Mark Wood on the sidelines. Matthew Potts, who surely deserved an opportunity in Melbourne, is expected to replace Atkinson.
Longer Matches Favour Australia
A batter-friendly surface is likely to work in Australia’s favour. England have struggled to maintain their usual run rates against the control of the Aussie pace attack, while England’s seam bowlers haven’t been able to consistently bowl in the right areas.
The extreme lateral movement in Melbourne made the match into something of a lottery. It favoured aggressive batting, as shown by Harry Brook, Travis Head, and Ben Duckett’s productive knocks. More conventional Test batting is going to be required in Sydney.
Could we finally get an epic Steve Smith innings? Smith has had a quiet series by his standards, but it’s likely the class of the top batters will stand out in Sydney. Look for Smith and Joe Root as potential top batters.
Spin Factor
England appear to have moved on from Shoaib Bashir. Sydney is going to turn, with spin becoming a particularly significant factor if this match gets to days four and five.
Will Jacks has looked like the batting all-rounder he is. There are good balls in there, but he bowls far too many loose deliveries. Australia have been unrelenting in attacking England’s makeshift frontline spinner, leaving Stokes with some captaincy dilemmas.
Murphy isn’t Lyon, yet he’s a solid international spinner. England are likely to get after him if it’s a dry, turning surface, which could lead to wicket-taking opportunities.
Bettors should keep an eye on the weather forecast – almost a week out from Day 1, it looks like there could be some rain about, which might lessen the effectiveness of the spinners.
Fifth Ashes Test Prediction
It’s remarkable Australia have won this series so emphatically with key players missing. It’s even more remarkable when you look at which players have really stepped up – there’s been massive dependence on Travis Head and Alex Carey with the bat and their second-string bowlers have been a mixed bag behind Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland.
England’s bowling needed a favourable wicket in the absence of Archer. There were good signs from Brydon Carse in Melbourne, but he’s leaked runs far too frequently in this series. Josh Tongue has been a revelation – how does he cope with three Tests in a row?
There have been positives for England this winter. Their medium-term future is perhaps brighter than Australia’s given the age of the Aussies’ core group. These teams are much more closely matched than 4-1 – 3-2 feels like a fair result, so it feels like there’s some value backing England as underdogs.
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
