Ashes

Ashes Third Test Odds & Predictions: England On Verge Of Series Defeat

9 hours ago

| BY Sam Cox

England are into must-win territory after losing the first two Ashes Tests.

Australia have Pat Cummins returning to the XI for the Third Test in Adelaide, with Nathan Lyon also likely to be named in the team after being a surprising omission in Brisbane.

The scrutiny on England couldn’t be much greater. Deciding to take time off between Tests has proved controversial. Brendon McCullum’s comments about overpreparing for the day/night Test were met with predictable scorn.

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For the first time as captain, Ben Stokes publicly criticised his players after reckless batting and out-of-control bowling saw England face a drubbing at the Gabba after Travis Head’s fireworks won Australia the First Test in Perth.

Stokes said, “Do we need to start thinking about what mentality we are taking into those pressure moments?

“When we are on top we are great and when behind the game we are also very good but when that moment is neck and neck we are not coming out on top on enough occasions.”

“There is a saying that we have said a lot here – Australia is not for weak men.

“A dressing room that I am captain of is not a place for weak men either.”

Mentality Questions

Stokes is right to question the mentality of his team. England have been in the ascendancy at multiple times across the first two Tests, but have blown those opportunities, usually through poor shot selection.

While it’s easiest to criticise the batters – particularly for those that see clips of the dismissals – the bowlers were at least as culpable in Brisbane. After a scintillating display in the first innings of the First Test, England’s quicks were erratic and didn’t seem capable of bowling to a play.

When put under pressure by Australia’s batters, England’s seam attack couldn’t hold a line and length and allowed the hosts to score far too quickly. Australia did to England what Bazball has done to so many opponents.

All of the batting lineup disappointed aside from Stokes, Joe Root, and Will Jacks. Anyone expecting a complete overhaul of the XI will be disappointed – Ollie Pope is the only batter that might be dropped for the Third Test.

Balancing the Bowling

England wanted to batter Australia with quick bowlers. The downside of this strategy has been a lack of control. The pitch in Brisbane rewarded bowlers who could repeatedly hit the right length – Michael Neser, ironically, wouldn’t get anywhere near this England team.

Mark Wood’s Ashes is over due to the knee injury he suffered in Perth. Brydon Carse was smacked around the park in Brisbane and seems likely to be left out for Josh Tongue in Adelaide. Tongue won’t be able to control the run rate, but at least he’s more of a wicket-taking threat than Carse.

Jofra Archer and Gus Atkinson are likely to continue with the new ball. Atkinson has bowled better than his figures suggest. Archer has a point to prove.

It seems like Will Jacks will remain as the spinner; Shoaib Bashir’s figures in the Lions’ loss last week didn’t do anything to convince England to go with the supposed specialist over Jacks.

Ashes Third Test Predictions & Best Bets

A 5-0 defeat felt very much on the cards when England lost in Brisbane. Cummins’ return only strengthens Australia. There’s no value backing the hosts to win at 2/5, and there’s a slither of chance (or perhaps English optimism) that England’s time away from cricket gets them in the head space to put up a fight in Adelaide.

Stokes’ comments after the Second Test illustrate a change in attitude. He has previously demanded his team to play the situation – rather than mindlessly stick to the Bazball mantra – and perhaps they can follow his lead with the bat and ball.

It’s still not worth taking England at 9/4. They haven’t won a Test in Australia in 15 years, and while they had the better side on paper for the first two Tests, two heavy defeats make it impossible to take England with such a high implied probability.

In the player markets, Tongue at 11/5 to be England’s top bowler has value. It seems almost guaranteed he comes into the side – he’s a proven wicket taker and should be able to clean up the Aussie tail.

Joe Root got his maiden century down under. Will commentators get a chance to roll out the London bus cliché? He’s 5/1 to reach triple figures.

Marnus Labuschagne has scored runs in his series, but he’s rarely looked comfortable at the crease. Having ridden some luck, we think it’s worth taking under 34.5 runs at 5/6.

In the bowling department, Cummins at 2/1 to be Australia’s top bowler is worth backing. He averages 21.9 with the ball at the Adelaide Oval and presents a different challenge from the other Aussie right-armers England have faced in this series.