England’s historic run chase at Headingley was followed by an emphatic win for India at Edgbaston.
This series is beautifully poised heading to Lord’s, with Jasprit Bumrah, Gus Atkinson, and Jofra Archer likely to return to their respective XIs.
England vs India Third Test Odds:
- England – 10/11
- Draw – 6/1
- India – 7/5
Bet on England v India at William Hill
Ben Stokes’ bat last policy came unstuck in Birmingham. Shubman Gill scored the second-most runs in a Test match ever to leave England chasing over 600 in under four sessions.
England, as they did at the start of the first innings, crumbled. The scrutiny on Zak Crawley has increased further, while questions should be asked about Ollie Pope’s long-term place in the side, despite his century in Leeds.
The cricket betting markets have responded to India’s win by shortening their odds for the third match of the series.
England remain the betting favourites to win the Anderson-Tendulkar trophy, but the most humiliating defeat of the Bazball era has set up a fascinating series. It seemed like a longshot the tourists could win a match without Bumrah in the XI – a 1-1 scoreline with the world’s best bowler set to play two of the three remaining tests is tantalising.
England’s Selection Dilemmas
Atkinson and Archer replacing Josh Tongue and Brydon Carse is an obvious answer for England. The latter duo got a lot of overs into their bodies at Edgbaston; Tongue was expensive and Carse doesn’t look fully fit.
It looks like England will stick with Shoaib Bashir, despite his continued struggles. If it’s a green pitch, England could replace Bashir with Jacob Bethell, bat Stokes at eight, and use Bethell and Joe Root as their spinners.
The other question surrounds Chris Woakes. Into his late-30s, does Woakes have it in him to play another Test match so soon after a battering on his home ground? Sam Cook is the like-for-like replacement in the squad, but he was largely unthreatening against Zimbabwe and could get put to the sword if it’s a flat pitch.
India’s New Ball Magic
India’s new ball spells swung a probable draw into a victory at Edgbaston. Mohammed Siraj and Akash Deep were excellent throughout the Test, getting far more movement out the surface than their English counterparts.
England will hope switching up their bowling attack addresses that issue.
Top order runs have been the foundation of England’s successes in recent years, particularly on flat pitches. Siraj and Deep bowled exceptionally well, but also benefited from some poor shots. Ben Duckett, Crawley, Pope, and Joe Root contributed of 96 runs in the Second Test.
Karun Nair, the lowest scorer in India’s top four, had 57 runs across the two innings. Gill had scores of 250+ and 150+, while Yashasvi Jaiswal and KL Rahul both recorded fifties.
England left Harry Brook, Ben Stokes, and Jamie Smith with far too much to do. If Lord’s presents another batting-friendly surface, the hosts need their top four to produce. It’s likely to be a good Test for batters with high temperatures expected in the capital this weekend – will Stokes dare to bowl first again?
Best Bet: Shubman Gill To Score a Century, Jamie Smith To Score a Fifty, Gus Atkinson To Be England’s Clear Top Bowler at 45/1
Gill has 585 runs across the first two Tests of this series. England have rarely created chances against the Indian captain, who barely played a false shot during his two mammoth innings at Edgbaston.
Smith leads all England players with 356 runs across four innings. He’s not scored fewer than 40 runs in an innings so far this series and passed 50 in both digs at Edgbaston.
Atkinson, owner of an excellent Lord’s record and drafted into the squad for this Test, is fresher than any other bowler in the series. He took 12 wickets against the West Indies at Lord’s last summer before adding another seven (and a century) in the win over Sri Lanka. With England’s quicks largely ineffective in Birmingham, look for Atkinson to make an immediate impact on his return to the side.
Recent India vs England Tests in England
- Second Test, 2025 – India won by 336 runs
- First Test, 2025 – England won by five wickets
- Fifth Test, 2022 – England won by seven wickets
- Fourth Test, 2021 – India won by 157 runs
- Third Test, 2021 – England won by an innings and 76 runs
- Second Test, 2021 – India won by 151 runs
- First Test, 2021 – Match drawn
- Fifth Test, 2018 – England won by 118 runs
- Fourth Test, 2018 – England won by 60 runs
- Third Test, 2018 – India won by 203 runs
- Second Test, 2018 – England won by an innings and 159 runs
- First Test, 2018 – England won by 31 runs
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at time of writing*
