India vs England Fourth T20 Preview

England and India face-off in Pune for the fourth match of their T20 series. India have a 2-1 series lead after the tourists fought back with a 26-run victory in Rajkot on Tuesday.

India have only played four previous T20s at the Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, winning two and losing two. Sri Lanka have the two wins over India in Pune, while England lost by five wickets back in 2012. The team batting first has scored over 200 and won the match in the last two T20Is at the stadium, which were played in 2023 and 2020.

In the Indian Premier League, 28 out of 51 matches at Pune have been won by the team batting first. The average first innings score in the IPL is 166 with spin bowlers often being very effective. Only five first innings out of 51 matches had a score north of 200.

Given how England have struggled against the turning ball throughout the series, it’s no surprise the cricket betting markets have India as clear favourites to win the match (8/15).

Ben Duckett to top score for England – 29/10

Ben Duckett rattled to 51 off 28 balls in Rajkot. He had seven off 10 balls in the first two matches. The left-hander regained his fluency, and his array of sweep shots will make a real threat against the Indian spinners in Pune.

Jos Buttler, one of England’s greatest ever players, top scored by a wide margin in the first two matches. Duckett, though, is a spin specialist with a strike rate of 148 and an average of 31 in T20Is in Asia.

With his opening partner Phil Salt desperately short on form and Harry Brook yet to excel on this tour, Duckett’s half-century a few days ago gives something for bettors to go on in this market.

Jos Buttler to score over 25.5 total runs – 5/6

The aforementioned Buttler is the top scorer in this series with 137 runs. A break over Christmas and New Year has served England’s white-ball captain well. He’s scored 68, 45, and 24 in this series, and has been getting plenty of powerplay opportunities with Salt struggling.

Buttler is dangerous in any phase. He can be especially destructive with the field up in the first six overs, particularly if India dare to bring their spinners on if the track favours turn.

This line seems five or six runs too low with the form Buttler has exhibited so far in this series.

England to win the match – 6/4

England should stick with the four-pronged pace attack of Jofra Archer, Mark Wood, Brydon Carse, and Jamie Overton. All four took wickets on Tuesday, with Archer crucially getting Sanju Samson early on.

Pune has often provided some new-ball assistance for the quicks, so don’t be surprised if England take a couple of powerplay wickets once again. Overton looks to have adapted to the conditions, too.

The threat of Indian’s spinners, especially Varun Chakravarthy, cannot be overstated, but with Duckett coming off a good score and Buttler playing well, England should be able to set a sufficient foundation to get to 160+.

England are deservedly underdogs in the betting, but we think there’s value at this price with the complete bowling performance they put in just a few days ago.