Cycling
2026 Tour de France – Stages 20-21 Predictions
The 2026 Tour de France reaches its dramatic conclusion with one final mountain showdown before the traditional finish in Paris.
Stage 20 takes the peloton into the Alps for the last opportunity to change the general classification, before Stage 21 sees the riders celebrate into Paris, where the sprinters will battle for one final prestigious stage victory on the Champs-Élysées. William Hill News looks ahead to the decisive final weekend of the Tour.
Tadej Pogačar has been the standout rider throughout the race, producing dominant climbing performances to hold the yellow jersey heading into the closing stages. Jonas Vingegaard has continued to apply pressure whenever the road has risen, while Remco Evenepoel has remained firmly in podium contention. However, with just two stages remaining, opportunities to overturn the standings are running out.
Stage 20 represents the final chance for the climbers and general classification contenders to attack, while Stage 21 traditionally belongs to the sprinters after the yellow jersey battle is settled.
Our Prediction
Stage 20: Jonas Vingegaard to win the final mountain stage, with Tadej Pogačar close behind as the Dane throws everything at the yellow jersey.
Stage 21: Jasper Philipsen to sprint to victory on the Champs-Élysées after his team delivers another perfectly timed lead-out.
Stage 20 – The Route
The penultimate stage is the final opportunity to make a difference in the mountains and should produce one last all-out battle between the Tour’s elite climbers.
With multiple major ascents throughout the day before a demanding summit finish, the route offers little respite. Riders will need to manage their efforts carefully, with the long Alpine climbs favouring pure climbers capable of sustaining high power for extended periods.
If the general classification remains close, this stage should be raced aggressively from the opening kilometres. Teams with podium ambitions will be looking to isolate rivals early before launching attacks on the final ascent.
Any rider hoping to take yellow must attack here—there will be no second chance.
Stage 20 Prediction
Jonas Vingegaard has built his reputation on producing his very best performances in the biggest mountain stages of the Tour de France. Long Alpine climbs allow him to ride at an incredibly consistent tempo, gradually wearing down even the strongest rivals.
Should he still trail Pogačar overall, expect Visma-Lease a Bike to race aggressively, attempting to soften UAE Team Emirates-XRG before the decisive climb.
Pogačar remains the favourite to defend yellow thanks to his explosive acceleration and exceptional consistency throughout the race. Even if he comes under pressure, the Slovenian has repeatedly shown his ability to limit losses when under attack.
Remco Evenepoel could also thrive if the pace becomes tactical rather than relentless. His ability to produce powerful solo efforts makes him a dangerous outsider should the favourites begin marking one another.
Our prediction is that Vingegaard claims the stage victory after an attacking ride, but Pogačar limits his losses sufficiently to all but secure a fourth Tour de France title.
Stage 21 – The Route
The final stage takes the riders into Paris, where the Tour concludes with the famous laps of the Champs-Élysées.
Following the traditional procession into the French capital, racing intensifies once the peloton reaches the finishing circuit. Teams gradually increase the pace before the sprinters’ lead-out trains take control during the closing kilometres.
The wide roads, sweeping corners and long finishing straight make positioning absolutely crucial. Timing the sprint perfectly is often just as important as outright speed.
Although breakaways occasionally try their luck, the sprinters’ teams almost always work together to bring everything back for one final bunch sprint.
Stage 21 Prediction
Jasper Philipsen remains one of the world’s premier sprinters and has consistently delivered on the biggest stages. Few riders combine raw speed with the positioning instincts required to win on the Champs-Élysées.
Tim Merlier will be among his biggest challengers, particularly if the finish becomes chaotic, while Jonathan Milan possesses the power to dominate if his lead-out train delivers him to the final 200 metres in contention.
Biniam Girmay could also feature prominently thanks to his ability to navigate technical finales and produce a fast finish under pressure.
Our prediction is Philipsen to cap off another outstanding Tour by taking victory in Paris, using his experience and finishing speed to edge a high-quality sprint field.
Yellow Jersey Prediction
Unless the time gaps remain exceptionally small heading into the penultimate stage, Tadej Pogačar looks well placed to ride into Paris wearing the Maillot Jaune.
Stage 20 should produce one final assault from Vingegaard, who is likely to attack repeatedly in the mountains, but Pogačar has shown throughout this Tour that he possesses both the strongest team and the best all-round form.
We expect Vingegaard to take the final mountain stage, but Pogačar to defend yellow successfully before celebrating overall victory on the Champs-Élysées.
Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change.
