Cycling
2026 Tour de France: Predictions After Stage 6
The Tour de France hits the high mountains again on Thursday, with Stage 6’s brutal run from Pau to Gavarnie-Degre set to ask the first big questions of this year’s race. William Hill News looks ahead to how the Pyrenean stage could shape up.
It has been a rollercoaster opening week. Jonas Vingegaard took the yellow jersey in the Barcelona team trial before Pogačar snatched it back with a victory at Les Angles, only for Torstein Træen to inherit the race lead when a huge breakaway was given room to escape into Foix on Stage 4. The Uno-X rider heads into the Pyrenees with a healthy cushion over the GC favourites, but Thursday’s stage was always pencilled in as the day for that to get tested.
Our Prediction:
Tadej Pogačar to win Stage 6 and reclaim the yellow jersey from Torstein Træen on the Col du Tourmalet.
The Route
This might just be the hardest day of racing so far. The riders will climb two mountains back-to-back, first the Col d’Aspin, then the gruelling Col du Tourmalet, one of the most famous climbs in the sport. After that, there’s a long descent before a final climb up the finish line in the village of Gavarnie-Gèdre. That last climb looks gentle on paper, but coming after two brutal mountains, it’s really a case of who has the freshest legs after a double summit.
Stage Prediction
All eyes will be on Tadej Pogačar. His team has looked the strongest in the race so far, and with team-mate Isaac del Toro able to set a punishing pace on the climbs, Pogačar should have the support he needs to make his move in the final stretch.
Jonas Vingegaard is the man most likely to go with him. His team also impressed in the opening stages, and if he can stick with Pogačar rather than get dropped, this could be the first real head-to-head battle of the race. Teenage sensation Paul Seixas has turned heads all week too, though tackling two huge mountains this early in his first Tour de France is a big ask.
King of the Mountains Winner
- Tadej Pogacar – 6/5
- Richard Carapaz – 4/1
- Lenny Martinez – 9/2
- Alex Baudin – 8/1
- Jonas Vingegaard – 10/1
Yellow Jersey Prediction
Torstein Træen has done brilliantly to hold the race lead this long, but he’s roughly eight minutes ahead of the big favourites, although a stage like this could be too much for that gap to survive. Expect the group he’s not part of to make its move on the Tourmalet, with Pogačar and Vingegaard doing battle at the front. Our prediction is that Pogačar comes out on top and takes back the yellow jersey by the finish, with Vingegaard close behind heading into the rest of the mountain stages.
*Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change*
