Cycling
Tour de France 2026: Stage 16 Time Trial Predictions & Betting Tips
The Tour de France emerges from its final rest day for a crucial test against the clock, with the battle for the podium blown wide open. William Hill News are on hand to preview the 16th Stage.
Stage 16 takes the peloton from Évian-les-Bains to Thonon-les-Bains, a 26.1km individual time trial around the shores of Lake Geneva. It’s the only solo test of the race’s closing fortnight, and with Jonas Vingegaard having crashed out of the race with a fractured collarbone on Stage 15, the fight for yellow – and the places behind it – has never looked more open.
Stage Winner
- Remco Evenepoel – 1/2
- Tadej Pogacar – 7/4
- Filippo Ganna – 14/1
- BAR – 40/1
Our prediction: Remco Evenepoel to win the time trial into Thonon-les-Bains, with Tadej Pogačar the closest challenger as the Belgian looks to cement second overall.
The Route
This is no straightforward pan-flat test. The opening third climbs for around 9.6km at an average incline of 4.2%, taking the riders up to roughly 800 metres before a 7km descent back down towards the lake. From there, the final 9km flattens out all the way to the finish in Thonon-les-Bains, rewarding a rider who can balance power on the climb with pure speed on the run-in.
It’s a course that suits a complete time triallist rather than a specialist of one discipline, and with Pogačar starting last as race leader, all eyes will be on whether Evenepoel can lay down a marker before the Slovenian even sets off.
The Prediction
Evenepoel goes into this as the standout favourite. The world time trial champion has been the benchmark in the discipline for several years, and he already matched Pogačar’s climbing pace on the Plateau de Solaison. With five minutes to find on general classification, he has every incentive to throw everything at this stage.
Pogačar, though, is no slouch against the clock. He won on similar terrain at the Tour de Suisse this year and finished runner-up in last year’s Tour time trial. Expect the champion to limit his losses rather than trouble Evenepoel for the win, but he’ll be desperate to protect his cushion over Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas further down the order.
Filippo Ganna and Joshua Tarling could also feature among the stage’s fastest times, though neither figure in the General Classification picture.
Yellow Jersey Prediction
Pogačar’s five-minute buffer over Evenepoel should be more than enough to survive even a strong ride from the Belgian, meaning yellow should stay on Slovenian shoulders heading into the final week.
However, the more interesting battle may be further down the pecking order. Del Toro, Seixas and Florian Lipowitz are separated by less than a minute, and a shaky ride against the clock could reshuffle the entire podium picture before Alpe d’Huez comes calling.
*Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change*
