Cycling
Tour de France 2024 predictions
The 2024 Tour de France begins on Saturday 29th June in Florence, Italy where the riders will travel east across the country before heading back west into France and across the Alps.
The tour spans 23 days, of which 21 are race days, where we will see the world’s best cyclists travel 3,492 kilometeres across Italy, San Marino and France, before finishing in Monaco.
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Itzulia Basque Country crash strengthens Tadej Pogačar’s chances
A high-speed crash in the Itzulia Basque Country in April saw several high-profile riders caught up in a catastrophic incident as they descended through the woodland. A sharp right-hand turn saw one rider slide off the road, causing numerous riders to come off their bikes at speed on the bend which saw some of the riders’ career into unprotected concrete ditches and rocks. The accident caused injuries to many of the fancied cyclists for this year’s Tour de France, none more severely than 2022 and 2023 Tour de France winner Jonas Vingegaard. The Dane suffered a broken collarbone and several broken ribs in the melee, meaning his participation this year isn’t guaranteed and faces a race against time to recover and line up in Florence on the 29th June.
This opens the door for two-time Tour de France winner Tadej Pogačar who heads the General Classification market without Jonas Vingegaard at 2/7. The UAE Team Emirates rider rode out a dominant victory of this year’s Giro d’Italia, finishing first in both general classification and mountain classification. The hill specialist will be suited to the first two stages through the Apennine hills which finish on the Adriatic Coast. He will however see fewer climbs in Stage Two, but far steeper gradients which will play into the Slovenian’s hands as well as the other esteemed hill riders. Regardless of Vingegaard’s participation, Pogačar is the leading chance to reclaim the coveted Yellow jersey.
Don’t rule out Roglič and Evenepoel
Despite being a short price, Pogačar isn’t guaranteed to have it all his own way and it might be worth considering some bigger prices. Better value may lie in Primož Roglič (4/1) and Remco Evenepoel (9/1) in the General Classification w/o Vingegaard market. Both riders were involved in the Itzulia Basque Country crash but haven’t faced any time off competition on the road as a result. The form pick is Roglič, who triumphed in the Critérium du Dauphiné last weekend in an exciting final stage. The Slovenian led after the penultimate stage on Saturday but was trailed by multiple riders going into the final stage on Sunday. He produced a great ride to win the event by eight seconds to American Matteo Jorgenson, who is a 20/1 chance for the Tour de France.
Remco Evanepoel is 9/1 to take the yellow jersey. This will be the Belgian’s first appearance in the Tour de France, and despite not having the preparation he’d have hoped for, there’s still reason to feel encouraged by the young rider’s chances. He finished seventh in the recent Critérium du Dauphiné, a great effort considering the broken collarbone he suffered back in early April as a result of the Itzulia Basque Country crash. He talked himself out of contention prior to last weekend’s event, carefully managing himself throughout the race, gradually building up the distance of sustained effort as the week went on, showing he still retains his time-trialling strength whilst highlighting what he may need to work on ahead of the Tour de France. If he can build on that, then he must have a great chance.
