Cycling
Vuelta a España 2026 Final Week Odds: Mas 1/5 to Hold Red Jersey
The final week of La Vuelta a España is upon us, William Hill News is here with everything you need to know about the contenders, the stages still to come and where the value lies.
After a race turned upside down by Tadej Pogačar’s shock crash and retirement on stage 8, it’s Enric Mas who takes the red jersey into the business end of the race.
The current state of play
Enric Mas heads into the final week with a healthy cushion over Felix Gall in second, with four-time champion Roglič sitting third. The Movistar man has looked a different rider to the perennial nearly-man of Vueltas past, taking the red jersey after Pogačar’s exit and backing it up with a stage win at Alto de Aitana. He heads a home Grand Tour for the first time in his career, and he’s ridden with the conviction of someone who believes it.
Roglič’s Vuelta pedigree is not in question, but he arrived carrying the after-effects of a training crash weeks before the start, and he’s yet to land the knockout blow that would suggest a fifth title is coming. Gall remains the dark horse, quietly consistent without ever looking like the strongest man in the race.
What’s left to come
Stages 16 and 17 are the last chance for the sprinters, easing from hilly starts into flat finishes at La Rábida and Seville, so expect bunch sprints and no real change at the top.
Stage 18 changes things: a flat but wind-exposed 32.5km time trial to Jerez de la Frontera, where three weeks of fatigue meet raw pace against the clock. It’s Roglič’s best remaining chance to cut into Mas’s lead.
Stage 19 covers 205km and looks tame on paper, but it ends with a tough 19km climb to Peñas Blancas that could shuffle the places behind Mas. Stage 20 is the big one: the new Collado del Alguacil, over eight kilometres with 20% ramps after two climbs of El Purche. It’s the last real opportunity to attack Mas, and the sort of finish that has cost leaders before. Stage 21 into Granada should be a formality, with the overall result already settled by then.
General Classification winner
- Enric Mas – 1/5
- Primož Roglič – 9/2
- Felix Gall – 9/1
Mas takes the final week with a lead over Gall and Roglič and has crucial momentum that should carry him comfortably through the final stages. He’s ridden as the strongest man in the race since Pogačar’s exit, backing up the red jersey with a stage win at Aitana and defending it calmly through the Andalusian mountains. The Jerez time trial on stage 18 is the obvious banana skin, but a rider in this sort of form should have enough to survive it.
Roglič’s four Vuelta titles make him impossible to write off entirely, and the queen stage to Collado del Alguacil offers one last throw of the dice, but Mas looks the value pick to complete a first Grand Tour win after three runner-up finishes at this very race.
Young Rider Classification winner
- Oscar Onley – 8/15
- Jakob Omrzel – 13/8
- Leo Bisiaux – 14/1
Onley has worn the white jersey since stage 9 and sits fifth overall, but a crash mid-race and a slim margin over Bahrain Victorious’s Jakob Omrzel means the Scot can’t afford a bad day.
Omrzel, only 20 and already the youngest Slovenian Grand Tour stage winner in history after his solo win at Calar Alto, has ridden with a freedom that suggests he’s still finding his ceiling, and the final weeks’ time trial and two summit finishes give him every chance to close the gap.
Bisiaux remains a third factor but looks to have too much ground to make up. Onley’s overall placing gives him a narrow edge, but this is a genuine coinflip between the market leaders, and Omrzel looks the better value price.
King of the Mountains winner
- Santiago Buitrago – 1/5
- Wout van Aert – 6/1
- Enric Mas – 6/1
Buitrago has led the mountains classification since stage 9 and has kept extending his advantage since, hoovering up points on the Calar Alto climbs in week two to pull clear of Van Aert and his own leader Mas. With Peñas Blancas and the brutal, brand-new Collado del Alguacil still to come on stages 19 and 20, there’s a hatful of points still up for grabs, and Buitrago’s Bahrain Victorious team have made clear the polka dot jersey is now their priority. Van Aert has the engine to hoover up points on any given day but is unlikely to prioritise the climbs over the green jersey run-in, while Mas picks up points almost as a by-product of racing for the overall. Buitrago looks the safe order here.
*Prices accurate at the time of writing, odds subject to change*
