Premier League Darts play-offs

After 16 weeks of tungsten tension, the Premier League Darts campaign all comes down to this – the Play-Offs at the O2.

Jonny Clayton was the last player to book his place to the finals – despite his early exit in Aberdeen – after a drama-filled Night 15. Clayton joins table-topper Gerwyn Price, Michael Smith and Michael van Gerwen vying for the trophy.

That wasn’t the only drama last week after Van Gerwen was forced to pull out of his semi-final after being plagued by an arm injury. Yet, it didn’t stop him from being too good for Chris Dobey in their quarter-final clash.

Let’s take a look at how the semi-finals might pan out, as well as recent winners of the Premier League.

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Past Premier League Darts finals

Since the Premier League Darts’ inception in 2005 two men have dominated. Phil Taylor and Michael van Gerwen have both lifted the trophy on six occasions. Now ‘Mighty Mike’ can win a record seventh title.

Van Gerwen picked up his sixth victory 12 months ago beating Joe Cullen in a nail-biting last-leg decider, where Cullen missed a match dart. It’s 5/2 Van Gerwen lands more Premier League joy.

Of the three other players in contention, only Jonny Clayton has previously won the tournament during his breakthrough year in 2021. And ‘The Ferret’ arrives in good form after winning a Players Championship title on Sunday.

Despite that win on Sunday, Clayton is the outsider of four and 7/1 to win his second Premier League title.

Here’s a look at the finals over the last 10 years, where you can see Van Gerwen taking the mantle from Taylor.

Finals Night Format

By now we’re used to all Premier League Darts matches being played over a best of 11 legs format. However, that changes for the Play-Offs!

The two semis are played over a best of 19 format. While the final is slightly longer being a race to 11 legs to crown the champion.

Semi-finals

Gerwyn Price (2/5) v Jonny Clayton (19/10)

Table-topper Gerwyn Price has reached the Premier League play-off phase for the first time in five attempts. His best finishes had previously been a pair of fifth places in 2019 and 2020.

‘The Iceman’ has arguably set the standard this year. The Welshman has the highest tournament average (98.31), fired in the most maximums (112) and hit the most 140s (221).

Now he faces his good friend Jonny Clayton – who he won the World Cup of Darts alongside in 2020 – for a place in the final.

Despite a slow start, Clayton came good as the tournament went on. ‘The Ferret’ earned consecutive Night wins in Berlin and Birmingham to boost his play-off hopes, something he achieved last week.

But it’s hard to ignore some of the spellbinding performances that Price has put in throughout the season. He’s averaging nearly four points more than Clayton during the tournament and is more reliable around the treble-20 bed.

The consistent power scoring Price has at his disposal should be too much for Clayton, as it has been on five of the six times they’ve faced other in 2023.

Their last meeting on Night 13 saw Price run out a 6-2 winner, averaging 110.35 and firing in four maximums to Clayton’s one, and something similar should be in store over this longer format.

Top tip: Gerwyn Price to win & hit the most 180s – 10/11

Michael Smith (4/5) v Michael van Gerwen (EVS)

The second semi-final is a repeat of the World Championship final, but it’s slightly tougher to predict with the wellbeing of Van Gerwen in question.

MvG did play in both Players Championship in Leicester over the weekend. On Saturday, he lost in his opening-round tie to Boris Krcmar despite averaging 101. But he fared better on Sunday, reaching the last 16 before succumbing 6-3 to eventual finalist and rising star of the PDC Tour Josh Rock.

Ahead of this semi-final, the market is slightly leaning in Smith’s favour. ‘Bully Boy’ finished second in the table having won four nights, including an incredible nine-match unbeaten run that saw him take the spoils in Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield.

Despite Van Gerwen winning their first two Premier League meetings of the season, Smith fought back with two 6-4 victories of his own last month, so the odds compilers aren’t taking any chances.

Over the course of the 16 nights, Van Gerwen’s finishing has tended to be his Achilles heel. Of the four semi-finalists, his checkout success rate is the lowest at 37.85%.

So, with the Dutchman’s erratic finishing and arm issue, it might be worth looking towards a pro-Smith market for this clash.

During the regular season, Smith led the way for ton-plus finishes (19) and recorded the second most 180s (102) behind Price. We all know the levels that ‘Bully Boy’ can hit, as we saw at Ally Pally as he lifted the Sid Waddell Trophy.

Smith’s maximum hitting is unquestionable and he’s averaging a 180 every 0.34 legs – the highest rate of any Premier League player. Plus, he ranks second for checkout success rate (39.4%), which should hold him in good stead at vital times in what could be a long and hard-fought battle.

Top tip: Michael Smith Over 4 180s & Michael Smith Over 1 Checkout Over 99 (5/2)

Predicted final

Gerwyn Price v Michael Smith

Score prediction: 11-8

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