Champions League final: 5 things to look out for in Man City v Inter Milan

Premier League? Check. FA Cup? Check. Champions League and a historic treble? Pending.

Man City stand on the verge of a treble of trophies and what would surely be the greatest season in their long history.

With Pep Guardiola at the helm, Erling Haaland on fire and the likes of Jack Grealish, Ilkay Gundogan and Kevin De Bruyne behind him, can anyone stop City?

Inter will hope to have the answer: the Italians may have finished 18 points off title-winning Napoli in Serie A, but Simone Inzaghi’s men are battle-hardened when it comes to the Champions League and boast a stubborn defence.

Who will have the edge in the 2023 Champions League final? Here’s five key things to look out for in Istanbul on Saturday.

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Man City on the verge of history

A win against Inter in the 2023 Champions League final would see Man City become champions of Europe for the very first time in their history.

Should they pull it off, the Citizens would become only the second English team ever to do the treble of winning the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League in the same season.

That the other club are their closest rivals Man Utd would only make that victory taste even sweeter.

It’s 4/9 that Man City beat Inter in 90 minutes to win the Champions League for the first time. Inter may hope to keep things close, and City are 9/1 to win in extra time. Inter, though, have plenty of experience on this stage, and are 11/2 to win the Champions League in normal time.

Can City out-do Pep’s great Barcelona side?

This Man City side are undoubtedly great – but just how great? Should City win then they will merit comparison to arguably the best side of the 21st century: the 2008/09 Barcelona team that was also managed by Pep Guardiola.

Barca won the treble themselves that year, with a 21-year-old Lionel Messi still cementing his status as a legend of the game.

However, this year’s Man City could actually be even better. Comparing the two sides’ Champions League runs, City have conceded five goals to Barca’s 13 and kept seven clean sheets to their four. City currently trail 31-32 on total goals scored in the tournament, but that could change in a hurry on Saturday.

City are EVS to keep an eighth Champions League clean sheet of the season, while at the other end their current goal difference in the competition is only bettered by two title-winning campaigns from Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. We have 13/8 on City to score at least three goals in the match, and 13/10 on City to score in both halves.

Haaland to continue his record run?

Pundits are running out of superlatives for Erling Haaland – and it’s only his first season in English football.

But it’s certainly not Haaland’s first Champions League campaign, and the Norwegian striker has been on a record run from his very first year where he netted eight times in five games.

Haaland has scored more goals than he has made appearances in the competition, averaging a barely believable goal every 63 minutes played in the Champions League.

It’s the best record of any player to have scored at least five times in Europe’s biggest tournament. Haaland to get the opener and City to win is 3/1, while the Norwegian is also 16/5 to score at least twice.

The Norwegian actually failed to score in the semi-final but City will be doing all they can to put chances on a plate for their master finisher on Saturday. It’s 14/5 that City have more than seven shots on target during the final.

Grealish and Gundogan key to unlocking Inter’s tight defence

Inter have boasted one of the better defences in this year’s Champions League, and Simone Inzaghi will craft a gameplan to put the clamps on City’s slick attack.

The Italians have deployed a low block to great effect, with nearly 60% of their pressures coming in their own half – the highest percentage of any side to make it past the group stage.

So, Inter are unlikely to come out of their shell too much as long as the game remains close.

That could mean their keeper Andre Onana has a big role to play. Onana has conceded just nine goals from 16.8 expected goals (xG) on target – and could equal the record for most clean sheets by a keeper in a single campaign (9). It’s 6/1 that Onana gets that shutout.

City, though, have more than a few keys to unlock that door.

Chief among them is Jack Grealish, whose 35 chances created in the Champions League this season are the most on record by an English player and whose ball-carrying distance is more than Inter’s top-two dribblers combined.

Grealish is 6/4 to assist a goal in the final, and 25/1 to assist a goal in either half with #YourOdds.

This may yet be Ilkay Gundogan’s last game for City, with the German out of contract this summer.

Gundogan scored twice in last week’s FA Cup final – including the fastest-ever goal in the fixture – and will hope to bow out with a bang.

Gundogan is 7/1 to get the opener, and 12/1 to have over two shots on target. You can also get 6/4 that Gundogan records more shots on target than Inter striker Romelu Lukaku, who is unlikely to see as much of the ball as City’s playmaker.

Inter hoping mind games will give them the edge

Inter are underdogs but will hope that they can get inside the heads of their opponents.

It’s the first time City and Inter have ever met in a competitive game – and the Sky Blues lost on their last appearance in the Champions League final to Chelsea in 2021.

Inter, by contrast, are appearing in their 11th major European final: Simone Inzaghi’s side have been there and done it, while City still have something to prove on the biggest stage.

Guardiola’s place in the pantheon of the game’s finest coaches isn’t in doubt, but the City boss has now gone 12 years since his last Champions League title despite managing some of the finest clubs in Europe over that span.

Could Inter spring a shock? They are 10/3 to lift the trophy, 25/1 to win in extra time and 14/1 to claim victory via a penalty shootout.

If Inter are to win, they may need a big night from Argentine striker Lautaro Martinez, who could become just the 10th player in history to win the World Cup and European Cup in the same season having featured in both finals.

Martinez is 7/1 to get the opener against City, and 9/2 to record more shots on target than Erling Haaland.

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