UEFA Champions League
Champions League Last 16 Draw: Arsenal could face trip to Germany
Wednesday marked the conclusion of the 2023/24 Champions League group stage, with two of the four English teams – namely Newcastle and Manchester United – finishing bottom of their respective groups.
Arsenal and Manchester City passed their group stage test with flying colours and will be in the pot for the Round of 16 draw on Monday. Whilst the draw is of course random, certain rules and restrictions mean some sides have a better chance of drawing certain teams than others.
We assess who Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta’s men have the best chance of being pitted against in Monday’s draw.
Arsenal
RB Leipzig – 7/2
The presence of three German sides in the Round of 16 means there’s only so many sides Bundesliga outfit RB Leipzig can face in Monday’s draw, so it’s only natural that Arsenal have a better chance of being pitted against Marco Rose’s men than anyone else.
Leipzig have made a good start to their Bundesliga campaign – sitting seven points off surprise league leaders Bayer Leverkusen and three points behind current champions Bayern Munich. Despite being drawn against European champions Manchester City, Leipzig managed to secure second place in Group G, winning all of their games apart from those two losses to Pep Guardiola’s men.
Lazio – 6/1
Arsenal’s Round of 16 opposition could likewise come in the form of an Italian outfit, with Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio the next most likely team the Gunners can face at 6/1. The Rome side have endured a poor start domestically and sit 10th in Serie A after 15 games, though three wins from their six Champions League games in Group E was enough to see them qualify in second place behind Atletico Madrid.
It’s worth noting that the last time Sarri faced Arsenal in Europe was with Chelsea in that fateful Europa League final clash in 2019, so the Gunners will need to be at their sharpest should they be pitted against the Italian manager again.
Manchester City
PSV Eindhoven – 11/2
With Pep Guardiola’s men characteristically winning all six of their Champions League group games, a draw against one of the second best sides of the group stage likewise lies in store for the reigning champions, with Dutch outfit PSV Eindhoven deemed one of the likeliest sides the Cityzens could face next February.
PSV remarkably hold a perfect domestic record so far – winning all 15 of their Eredivisie fixtures and opening up a 10-point lead at the summit of the league, while certainly benefiting from usual title rivals Ajax’s sudden demise. They were pitted against another English outfit in Arsenal for the group stage of the Champions League, holding Mikel Arteta’s men to a 1-1 draw in the home leg and losing just one of their six games.
Porto – 11/2
Portuguese side Porto have been given a similar chance of drawing Manchester City at 11/2 and will certainly arrive in the Round of 16 full of confidence after matching Barcelona’s 12-point tally in Group H, qualifying second on the head-to-head rule despite having a better goal difference than their Spanish counterparts.
They won four of their six group games, with two losses to the Catalan giants by a single goal, and likewise carry a reasonable domestic record as we approach the halfway mark of the season – winning 10 of their 13 Liga Portugal fixtures, which sees them share the lead in the division with Sporting Lisbon.
