Lee Phelps’ Champions League Picks: Newcastle to edge out Milan in group stage climax

So, here we are at the last gameday of the Champions League group stages, with a mixture of crucial matches and dead rubbers.

I’ve picked out a few of Wednesday’s games below.

RB Leipzig v Young Boys – 17:45

First up, RB Leipzig take on Young Boys, with the Swiss side safely in the Europa League and the German outfit booked into the last 16. They’re doing well in the Bundesliga too and sit in the top four, only three points off Bayern in second, having beaten Borussia Dortmund at the weekend.

I expect goals here, with both sides equally likely to score and concede. The result isn’t easy to predict but I’m struggling to see how Young Boys are 7/1 to win this and 11/1 to win with both teams scoring, especially if Leipzig justifiably weaken down with sixth place Hoffenheim to play on Saturday.

If you don’t play the away win on value grounds alone, here are a couple of scorers on each side to look at – Lois Openda has banged in 14 goals in 19 games across the Bundesliga and in Europe, while Jean-Pierre Nsame has rattled in 12 in 19 domestically in Switzerland. They’re 8/13 and 3/1 to score anytime respectively.

Newcastle v AC Milan – 20:00 

Newcastle United need every one of their fervent supporters to be in full voice to create one of those famed European nights. Only a win will do and they still need PSG to draw or lose against Dortmund. The interesting thing is that AC Milan need a win too.

The Italian giants lost 3-0 at PSG and had a goalless draw at Dortmund, while Newcastle’s home form includes a loss to the German side, but that emphatic 4-1 win over the French champions may be the head-to-head difference they need, if they tie on points.

I see this one being cagey early on, but both sides have goals in them, so whoever scores first the other must come out and attack. Newcastle are a touch of odds on to win, but adding in both teams to score takes them out to 13/5 for the win.

Borussia Dortmund v PSG – 20:00 

Newcastle’s efforts may be futile if PSG win at Dortmund, which, given the Bundesliga side’s recent form isn’t out of the question – since they beat AC Milan 3-1 they haven’t won a game. However, to keep Geordie hopes alive PSG’s away form in this competition hasn’t been brilliant either. They also concede on the road – in fact, they’ve let at least one goal in on each of their last 15 trips.

I don’t think PSG should be the odds on favourites here, despite their need being greater, because Dortmund will still want to top the group. The draw at 3/1 looks the most likely result and a score draw is 18/5.

Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City – 17:45

A glancing look at Red Star Belgrade against Manchester City and you think the short price for an away win is perfectly fine and it may well turn out that way, but the Premier League champions have work to do domestically and although they have a relatively easy set of festive fixtures, they still need nine points from nine so they may change things around here.

I think they will win, but Pep Guardiola has seen his side concede in 10 of their 12 away games in all competitions, including both Champions League matches. There’s nothing to play for here too, and Red Star will be the more motivated to put in a good performance against the reigning champions, so I’ll give them a goal at least. City to win with both teams scoring is nearly 2/1 and that’s good enough for me.