UEFA Champions League
Champions League semi-final second leg preview: City can’t be complacent against battle-hardened Madrid
The second leg of the Champions League semi-finals are played across Tuesday and Wednesday this week, with each of the four sides attempting a last throw of the dice to get to June’s final in Istanbul.
We preview both games below.
Inter v AC Milan – Tuesday 20:00
Inter will take a commanding 2-0 lead from the San Siro – back to the San Siro – after outclassing city and stadium rivals AC Milan in last week’s first leg. Things could have been considerably worse for Stefano Pioli’s men, who were 2-0 down after 11 minutes and would have been out of sight in the first half an hour had Inter converted a penalty that was eventually overturned by the on-field referee.
To say Milan will be glad it’s only a two-goal deficit may sound like a cliché but remains very much true, and their odds of 11/4 to win in 90 minutes on Tuesday and 9/1 to qualify for next month’s final highlights the enormity of the task they have ahead of them. A 2-0 loss to relegation-threatened Spezia at the weekend will hardly improve the mood of the team, who have now won just three of their last 11 Serie A games as their season aspirations hang by a thread.
Inter have conversely managed to detach themselves from their slump between March and April, winning their last five league games whilst scoring 18 goals in the process, and begin as 21/20 favourites to back up last week’s victory with another win here. Their odds of progressing to Istanbul next month are an overwhelmingly short 1/25, so finding value in other markets will be the most profitable method of approaching this fixture.
We like the look of the over 2.5 goals market here, particularly given Inter’s recent proficiency in front of goal and Milan’s difficulty in keeping clean sheets of late (just two in their last seven), so odds of 21/20 seem attractively priced. In terms of goalscorers, Inter’s Lautaro Martinez looked sharp in last week’s first leg and despite not getting on the scoresheet is the 17/10 favourite to find the net anytime on Tuesday.
Manchester City v Real Madrid – Wednesday 20:00
It’s difficult to pinpoint a specific takeaway from last week’s brilliant first leg between these two sides at the Bernabeu Stadium, although perhaps what surprised some was that City weren’t able to blow Real away as many predicted. Carlo Ancelotti’s men actually had the better of most of the tie, particularly after Vinicius’ breath-taking strike in the first half, until Kevin De Bruyne drew City level with his own special effort from outside the area.
On paper, City will be happier with avoiding defeat in the first leg, but as Real have shown over the past half a decade, they will pounce if you give them an inch. They are akin to an experienced street fighter that is combat-trained for any situation they finds itself in, as City brutally witnessed first-hand in last year’s semi-final second leg. Pep Guardiola’s men are firm 2/7 favourites to progress to next month’s final and 6/10 to win the tie in 90 minutes, but only a fool would deem this as straightforward an assignment as the odds suggest.
Real are priced at 5/2 to qualify for yet another Champions League final, with a draw, which would of course see us through to extra-time, available at 16/5. Either side to win on penalties is 14/1, while City to continue their trend of scoring early in big home games and lead at the 30 minute mark is interestingly priced at 17/10.
