EFL Cup

Carabao Cup Fourth Round Predictions & Betting Tips (2025/26)

1 hour ago

| BY Sam Cox

The fourth round of the Carabao Cup is taking place this week.

Five of the 16 remaining teams are plying their trade outside the topflight, and at least one non-Premier League team will be in the quarterfinals thanks to an all-Welsh tie taking place between Wrexham and Cardiff.

Reigning Premier League champions Liverpool are the football betting favourites to lift the trophy at 4/1, putting Arne Slot’s side narrowly ahead of Manchester City and Arsenal.

Carabao Cup Outright Winner Odds:

Punters can bet on the EFL Cup at William Hill and here is the current state of the outright market:

Liverpool – 4/1
Manchester City – 9/2
Arsenal – 5/1
Chelsea – 7/1
Newcastle – 8/1
Tottenham – 10/1
Brighton – 12/1
Fulham – 14/1
Crystal Palace – 16/1
Brentford – 16/1
Wolves – 28/1
Wrexham – 50/1
Swansea – 100/1
Cardiff – 100/1
Wycombe – 250/1
Grimsby – 250/1

Value for Hollywood-Backed Robins

The all-Welsh clash is the first to catch our eye from a betting perspective. Wrexham are 5/4 to beat a Cardiff team that is in the third tier of the Football League. These teams swapped places last season with promotion and relegation, respectively, and Wrexham have made a passable start to the 2025-26 campaign.

A tricky away day against a much-improved Stoke is Wrexham’s only defeat over their last eight matches. Cardiff lost to Bolton at the weekend to make it three losses from five matches. With home advantage, Wrexham are good value at 5/4.

Road Teams Worth Backing

Away from the Emirates and the Racecourse Ground, it doesn’t take much to talk yourself into backing six away teams to progress. It is 71/1 for Brentford, Manchester City, Tottenham, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, and Fulham all to win on the road inside 90 minutes.

While that’s a longshot, there are other ways to approach these markets. Bettors should look into the ‘tie winner’ market for Tottenham, who are coming off an impressive 3-0 win away to Everton. They are facing a Newcastle team that might rotate with Champions League action to come next week.

Bet on sports at William Hill

Palace beat Liverpool at the end of last month. Slot’s team have lost five out of six since then, including a defeat to Manchester United at Anfield. Brentford outcompeted the Premier League champions at the weekend – they need to prove the 5-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt was more than a freak result.

The others are relatively self-explanatory. Brentford should cruise past Grimsby – the Bees can target a trip to Wembley in this competition. Manchester City will be looking to get back to winning ways after their loss to Aston Villa. Despite defeat to Sunderland, Chelsea are rightly favoured over struggling Wolves. Fulham should have far too much quality for Wycombe.

Rotation Defines League Cup Chances

More than any other competition, a team’s chances in the Carabao Cup are often dictated by how seriously they take the competition. The tie between Newcastle and Tottenham, for instance, is hard to predict before we know the team news.

Sides like Wolves could do with the boost from getting a result against Chelsea, but will they name a full-strength team? Enzo Maresca will expect a heavily rotated XI to still get the job done.

Home advantage doesn’t feel like as big a factor in the early rounds, too. All-Premier League ties aren’t going to have hostile atmospheres. It’s cold, rainy, and matches aren’t included in most season tickets. That’s part of the reason for being confident in combining the road teams.

While adding Spurs and Palace is tempting, the true value bet is 3/1 on Brentford, Chelsea, Fulham, and Manchester City to win in 90 minutes.