EFL Play-offs: First legs preview

There’s nothing quite like the tension and drama of the EFL play-offs. After a gruelling 46-game season across the Championship, League One and League Two, we’re left with six teams going all-out to win promotion.

The semi-finals get underway this weekend: two legs to decide who’ll be heading on their holidays and who’ll be booking their trip to Wembley for the final. From there, it’s just 90 minutes (or 120 minutes, and maybe even a dreaded penalty shootout) from glory.

As always, the top-ranked team takes on the lowest-placed qualifier – but that doesn’t always guarantee success for the team who had the best league record. Only one of the last four teams to have finished third in the Championship have gone on to clinch promotion.

These first legs are a chance to get one foot on Wembley Way ahead of the final. Here’s the key things to watch for in the first legs of the EFL play-offs this weekend.

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Black Cats hunting two in a row

Third-place Luton head to the Stadium of Light to take on a Sunderland side who swept into the play-offs on the final day of the season. The Black Cats benefited from Millwall’s astonishing collapse against Blackburn to pounce on sixth spot and keep their dream of back-to-back play-off promotions alive.

They face a Luton side who have been simply superb under boss Rob Edwards. The Hatters lost just eight games in the regular season, a mark bettered only by champions Burnley (3). Led by 20-goal striker Carlton Morris, Luton are looking to halt an alarming run in the play-offs which has seen them fail to win any of the six games they’ve played to date. The Hatters are 15/8 to win the first leg, with Morris 24/5 to score in the first half.

Sunderland have not lost a home game against Luton in their last 18 meetings, dating back to 1973. They are 6/4 to win this one, and the draw is 21/10. No side in the Championship drew more games than Luton this season, with both match-ups with Sunderland finishing 1-1. A repeat of that scoreline is 9/2.

Goal-scoring heavyweights face off

Coventry and Middlesbrough met on the final day of the season, so each will have been eyeing the other’s strengths and weaknesses ahead of this tie. Coventry held onto a 1-1 draw last week which secured their play-off spot, and they kick things off in front of their own fans having won four of their last five home games against Boro.

In a battle between two bosses shortlisted for the Manager of the Year award, Michael Carrick will hope his free-scoring Boro can grab a first leg lead. Only Burnley (87) outscored Boro (84) this season, although that openness has also left them exposed at times on the road. A Boro win with both teams scoring is 24/5.

Both teams boast plenty of power in attack. Coventry’s Viktor Gyokeres had more goal involvements than any other player in the league, as well as ranking in the top five for shots, shots on target and chances created. Gyokeres is 9/2 to get opener, and 12/1 to score two or more. Three or more goals in the match with Gyokeres scoring any time is 17/5.

Boro’s Chuba Akpom was the Championship’s top-scorer with 28 goals and is 23/10 to score any time, but his team-mate Cameron Archer might be the one to have Coventry defenders on red alert. Archer has 11 goals and six assists since signing in January, scoring with 69% of his shots on target so far. He is 11/2 to get the opener; a Boro win with Archer scoring the final goal of the game is 12/1.

Owls flying high

Sheffield Wednesday finished a massive 19 points ahead of Peterborough this season, missing out on automatic promotion despite amassing 96 points. The Owls are favourites, but Posh will fancy the upset: they are unbeaten in their last five home matches against the Owls, winning the last three in a row.

Johnson Clark-Harris has enjoyed a fantastic goalscoring season for Peterborough, bagging 26 goals to go with four assists. Clark-Harris is 11/5 to score any time, and 24/5 to have at least three shots on target.

For the Owls, much of their good play has once again come from midfield stalwart Barry Bannan. The Scot recorded 13 assists this season, the second most in League One, as well as creating over 100 chances. Bannan is 2/1 to get an assist, and 10/1 to set up two or more goals.

Charles to crown fine season in front of goal?

Bolton and Barnsley have met three times already this season: Bolton took four points off the Tykes in the league, although Barnsley did knock them out of the FA Cup. That win was the Yorkshire side’s only victory in their last 16 meetings with Bolton in all competitions, and the home side are 11/8 to win the first leg.

Barnsley, though, have a good play-off pedigree, winning promotion on two of their four attempts so far. A draw would be a solid result to take back to Oakwell for the second leg – that result is 23/10. Devante Cole – son of former Man Utd striker Andrew – top-scored for the Tykes with 15 league goals this season, and is 6/1 to get the opener in the first leg.

Bolton’s Dion Charles went one better than Cole with 16 league goals to his name – 11 more than any of his team-mates. The bulk of Charles’ goals have come on the road this season but he will be a key man for Bolton in this one – he is 2/1 to score any time, and 12/1 to score two or more.

Ammies make their EFL play-off debut

Salford will hope to break their duck against Stockport in the first leg on Saturday: they are yet to record a Football League win over County. This is Salford’s first-ever participation in the EFL play-offs, and they’ll hope Elliot Watt can give them a spark: he racked up 15 assists this season. Top-scorer Callum Hendry will look to be the beneficiary: he is 6/1 to open the scoring in the first leg.

Stockport are gunning for back-to-back promotions, having missed out on an automatic spot by just four points. County are 29/20 to grab a first-leg lead, with the draw 9/4. Stockport had three players reach double-figures for goals this campaign, although Kyle Wootton’s season has been ended by injury. Paddy Madden and Will Collar lead the way instead, with Madden 13/5 to score any time and Collar 15/2 to get the opener.

Huge home crowd hoping to make the difference

The fans have packed Valley Parade this season, with Bradford’s average attendance almost double that of the next-highest League Two side. It’s sure to be a boisterous atmosphere on Sunday when they face a Carlisle side that only finished ahead of them on goal difference.

City failed to score in both league meetings with Carlisle this season, but in Andy Cook they have a player who can set that straight. Cook scored 28 times this campaign, laying on another eight for team-mates, and is 6/4 to score any time. A Bradford win with Cook scoring the opener is 13/2.

Carlisle are 5/2 to keep a third straight clean sheet against Bradford, and if they do they’ll fancy their chances of winning the first leg – they’re 23/10 to head north with a lead. It could be a tight game, and a draw is also 23/10.

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