By Anis Bazza
Last Updated: 14th November 2018
England fans baffled by Gareth Southgate vowing to select in-form players then recalling Wayne Rooney for a bizarre farewell cameo should spare a thought for the USA, who have been ‘rebuilding’ under an interim manager for just short of a year following their failure to reach the World Cup.
England vs USA: Odds and Predictions
Wembley welcomes back Southgate’s side a month to the day since their bolt-from-the-blue victory over Spain in Seville and the William Hill traders appear to believe it heralded a new dawn in English football, chalking them up at just a 2/7 forecast in the match betting.
The USA are trading as 9/1 underdogs for victory, as befits a side with one win in their last six outings under interim boss Dave Sarachan, while the draw is a 9/2 pick.
Credit must be given to both Sarachan and the players he’s called up to the USMNT during his tenure, as the rudderlessness implied by the USSF’s inability to source a new boss hasn’t been reflected in any humiliations on the field of play.
Far from it. They’ve lost just three times in 10 friendly games under the former Chicago Fire gaffer, holding opposition of the ilk of France and Portugal to stalemates and besting Mexico during that sequence.
Given the men with Three Lions on their shirts last netted more than twice in a home friendly against Peru in May 2014, 15 matches ago, our England vs USA predictions and betting tips expect any win will be far narrower than their match odds suggest if it transpires at all.
England vs USA head-to-head (inside the last decade, most recent first): England 1-1 USA, England 2-0 USA, USA 1-2 England, England 2-0 USA, USA 2-2 England.
England vs USA predictions: correct score, best bet, scorer tips
Correct score: England to win 2-1, odds @ 15/2
If the birth of the Nations League served notice of the beginning of the end for international friendlies, making this fixture a de-facto testimonial for Rooney has only served to deflate the occasion further, robbing Southgate of the chance to blood a new call-up or fringe player.
A further intensity reduction must yield an England performance a far cry from the thrilling attacking incision seen in Seville, while also leaving the door open for the USMNT to find the net.
The visitors have scored in eight of their 10 friendlies under Sarachan’s stewardship, breaching backlines as stringent as those of France, Portugal, Mexico and Colombia.
The first of our England vs USA predictions expect them to do likewise against hosts with one eye on their upcoming competitive clash with Croatia but still fall short of claiming a point.
Any team capable of losing to the Republic of Ireland, as the Americans did in June, is trusted to find a way to be defeated at Wembley.
Southgate has yet to lose a home friendly as national team manager and after drawing his first four, he has won the last three, with the Three Lions scoring twice on two of those three occasions.
The most trusted among our England vs USA predictions is banking on England winning the opening period for the fourth time in their last five friendly matches, on the way to closing out the victory.
Given the Three Lions are trading at odds of a mere 2/7 to win the match, backing them to have their noses in front before the interval and keep them there until the final whistle looks a shade of value.
Scorer prediction: Marcus Rashford our pick to score first @ 4/1
Raheem Sterling stole the show in Spain with the brace that ended his three-year national side goal drought, but rather than back him to notch the opener again, our England vs USA predictions retain faith in reliable Rashford.
It wasn’t so long ago that backing Harry Kane to score in an England match against second or third-tier foes was a no-brainer, but these days that mantle has passed to the Manchester United man, who’s bagged in three of his last four internationals, including the first goal in his past two friendlies.
England vs USA stats:
- England haven’t lost a home international friendly match since March 2016, when they were beaten 1-2 by the Netherlands. They are unbeaten in 10 since (W6 D4 L0).
- Rooney has never scored in two previous national team appearances against the USA; he has only played more games against three other countries without scoring – Italy (3), Portugal (4) and Wales (5).
- The USMNT have lost only one of their last nine matches against European opposition (W3 D5), a 1-2 defeat to the Republic of Ireland in June.
Anis grew up supporting Manchester City but found joy and solace across Europe’s major football leagues. Increasingly passionate about NBA, he is interested in and has written extensively about different aspects of sport across the years, previously working at Sky Sports News and Sport360 newspaper in Dubai. He studied Journalism at University but spent a large portion of his academic years building City Watch instead - the largest independent Manchester City Twitter account and website.